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NLY
ACCE-researched

Annaly Capital Management Inc. Common Stock (NLY) fair value

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage · NYSE · United States
$18.35+0.05%
Market cap $13.8BNext earnings 2026-10-20Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 39% below our fair value
Price
$18.35
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$30.31
Only one of our models could value this stock with confidence, so use it as a guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a REIT (property company): Price to FFO.
ACCE opinionAnnaly Capital Management Inc. Common Stock (NLY)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$18.60
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 21 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $21.00 since 26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $18.35 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Price to FFO.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
62
out of 100
Analysts
69% buy
13 covering
P/E
12.5x
forward 6.5x
1-year return
-12.2%
Dividend yield
16.10%

Annaly Capital Management Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Annaly Capital Management is a mortgage REIT that holds agency mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae, funded largely through repurchase agreements, with a smaller residential credit and mortgage servicing business alongside. The core advantage is the agency guarantee, which removes most credit risk from the book and leaves the investment case resting on spread management and hedging rather than on underwriting. The reported 479% revenue growth mostly reflects a swing in net interest and hedging income as rates moved, so it should not be read as operating momentum. The stock trades at 5.9x forward earnings against a trailing 12.5x, which points to the market expecting earnings to step down, and an ROE of 7.3% is modest for a levered balance sheet. The case for a deeper look is the gap between a depressed forward multiple and a 13.8B market cap, but that only holds if net interest spreads stabilise, and the forward estimate is the number to test first.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 24, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Negative free cash flow
    Free cash flow is -$222.2M while debt/equity sits at 6.95. The business is funding its activity through leverage and external capital rather than internal cash generation.
  • moderate
    Score down sharply in 90 days
    The ACCE score fell from 72 to 65 over 90 days, with the momentum sub-score at 25 out of 100 against a growth score of 100.
  • moderate
    Insider selling without buying
    Recent disclosed insider activity shows $5.03M in sales and no buys, a one-directional pattern worth noting alongside the 0.1% insider ownership.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 23, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Analysts remain constructive, with 9 of 13 rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
  • The stock trades at 5.9 times forward earnings, a low multiple if the latest quarter's profit holds.
  • Earnings beat expectations last quarter, with earnings per share of 0.80 against 0.77 expected.
Why it could disappoint
  • Leverage is high, with debt at 6.95 times equity, so a small move in mortgage spreads could hit book value hard.
  • Free cash flow over the last 12 months was negative at -$222M, which raises doubts about the sustainability of the 16.7% dividend yield.
  • The diluted share count rose 22.6% last fiscal year, diluting existing holders' stake in the company.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

PRO

Ask ACCE

Valuation

INVESTOR
Where NLY's valuation models land
Price
$18.35
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$30.31
Model
Fair value
Upside
Price to FFO
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish69% buy · 13 covering analysts
● Strong buy 5● Buy 4● Hold 4● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+0.7%
1 month
-12.8%
3 months
-18.3%
6 months
-19.3%
YTD
-17.9%
1 year
-12.2%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
21 Oct 2026, 01:52 CESTACCE price target$18.60$21.00$18.29
30 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$44.83$45.38$20.35
26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$21.00first publication$20.60
21 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$45.38$46.35$21.05
18 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$46.35$45.72$21.23
16 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$45.72$47.23$21.84
14 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$47.23$47.89$21.90
31 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$47.89$41.00$23.04
25 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$41.00$40.58$23.23
20 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$40.58$41.01$23.62

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth100Value55Quality67Momentum25Total62
Valuation
Trailing P/E
12.5x
Forward P/E
6.5x
PEG
32.03
P/B
1.05x
EV / Revenue
17.5x
Book value/sh
$17.86
Enterprise value
$140.4B
Profitability
ROE
7.3%
FCF yield
-1.61%
ROIC
1.3%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
6.95
Dividend yield
16.10%
Beta
1.28

Price

-12.4% · 1Y

Ask anything about NLY

Answered from Annaly Capital Management Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 100% of peers
low 12.5x12.5xhigh 177.8x
ROEbetter than 100% of peers
low 1%7%high 7%
Div yieldbetter than 83% of peers
low 8.7%16.1%high 16.4%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
NLY Annaly Capital Management Inc. Common Stock$18.35--12.5x7.3%6762
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp. Common Stock$8.89--177.8x0.9%6260
AGNCN AGNC Investment Corp. Depositary Shares Each Representing a 1/1000th Interest in a Share of 7.00% Series C Fixed-To-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock$25.22---0.9%6258
AGNCM AGNC Investment Corp. Depositary Shares rep 6.875% Series D Fixed-to-Floating Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock$24.49---0.9%6258
AGNCP AGNC Investment Corp. Depositary Shares Each Representing a 1/1000th Interest in a Share of 6.125% Series F Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock$24.67---0.9%6259
RITM Rithm Capital Corp. Common Stock$8.68--15.7x5.6%4941
STWD STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc.$12.58--21.0x3.7%4542

Sector report card

Where NLY ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Sep 29, 2026
    Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Announces Dates of Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Conference Call
  • Business Wire•Sep 9, 2026
    Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Announces 3rd Quarter 2026 Common Stock Dividend of $0.75 per Share
  • PR Newswire•Sep 4, 2026
    Physical AI Firm XTEND Set to Make NYSE Trading Debut: NYSE Content Update
4 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 20
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-10-20
View on SEC →
Oct 20
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-10-20
View on SEC →
Oct 20
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-10-20
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR