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STWD

STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD) fair value

Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage · NYSE · United States
$12.58+0.00%
Market cap $4.8BNext earnings 2026-11-06Updated Oct 17, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 46% below our fair value
Price
$12.58
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$23.09
Only one of our models could value this stock with confidence, so use it as a guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a REIT (property company): Price to FFO and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionSTARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$13.30
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $12.58 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: EV/EBITDA comparison and Price to FFO.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
42
out of 100
Analysts
78% buy
9 covering
P/E
21.0x
forward 6.7x
1-year return
-32.2%
Dividend yield
15.26%

STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Starwood Property Trust is a mortgage REIT whose core book is commercial real estate senior loans and CMBS, funded in part by its Starwood Capital-linked origination platform and its Woodbridge and infrastructure lending arms. Its edge is origination scale and access to deal flow sourced through the wider Starwood franchise, which lets it pick through a lending market where smaller balance sheets have pulled back. Revenue growth of 13.4% is the number to watch, though it sits against a thin 3.7% ROE and an operating margin of -5.9%, so the earnings base is far less clean than the headline line item suggests. The forward P/E of 10.0 against a trailing 21.0 says the market expects earnings to recover sharply, and that expectation is the thing to test: it depends on credit quality holding in office and multifamily exposures and on net interest spreads widening as higher-rate loans reprice. With a $4.8B market cap, no index membership and a score of 42/100, this is a name that needs a deeper look at loan-level credit and the dividend coverage math before anything else.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Earnings collapse
    Earnings are down 97.4% year over year while revenue grew 13.4%. Operating margin is -5.9% and net margin is +38.2%, so reported profit is not coming from operations.
  • moderate
    Leverage elevated
    Debt to equity is 3.25. Even for a mortgage REIT that is a heavy load, and it makes the equity sensitive to any tightening in funding or credit spreads.
  • moderate
    Score down sharply
    The ACCE score fell 14 points over 90 days, from 56 to 42. Margin sub-score is 17 of 100 and quality is 45, so the deterioration is spread across the model.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue grew 13.4% over the past year, ahead of its 10.6% average annual pace over five years.
  • Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $709M, and the stock's free cash flow yield is 15.0%.
Why it could disappoint
  • Return on equity is just 3.7% and return on invested capital is 1.2%, so the business earns little on the capital it uses.
  • Debt to equity stands at 3.25, which leaves the company exposed if commercial real estate loans start to go bad.
  • Diluted share count rose 5.2% last fiscal year, diluting existing holders, and the latest quarter missed earnings estimates by 2.7%.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 6, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where STWD's valuation models land
Price
$12.58
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$23.09
Model
Fair value
Upside
EV/EBITDA comparison
Price to FFO
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish78% buy · 9 covering analysts
● Strong buy 3● Buy 4● Hold 2● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+1.0%
1 month
-14.4%
3 months
-23.8%
6 months
-30.9%
YTD
-30.1%
1 year
-32.2%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$13.30first publication$12.71
9 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$24.32$24.66$12.66
6 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$24.66$24.94$13.05
29 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$24.94$25.22$14.36
22 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$25.22$25.64$14.94
19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$25.64$25.32$15.08
17 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$25.32$25.93$15.20
14 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$25.93$25.20$15.62
12 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$25.20$25.56$15.62
30 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$25.56$26.30$15.94

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth40Value65Quality45Momentum17Total42
Valuation
Trailing P/E
21.0x
Forward P/E
6.7x
PEG
no data
P/B
0.84x
EV / Revenue
23.9x
Book value/sh
$17.54
Enterprise value
$28.6B
Profitability
ROE
3.7%
FCF yield
15.39%
ROIC
1.2%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
3.25
Dividend yield
15.26%
Beta
1.05

Price

-32.5% · 1Y

Ask anything about STWD

Answered from STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 67% of peers
low 15.7x21.0xhigh 177.8x
ROEbetter than 83% of peers
low -2%4%high 6%
Div yieldbetter than 67% of peers
low 8.7%15.3%high 18.8%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
STWD STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc.$12.58--21.0x3.7%4542
RITM Rithm Capital Corp. Common Stock$8.68--15.7x5.6%4941
AGNCP AGNC Investment Corp. Depositary Shares Each Representing a 1/1000th Interest in a Share of 6.125% Series F Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock$24.67---0.9%6259
DX Dynex Capital Inc. Common Stock$11.05--39.5x-2.0%4654
AGNCM AGNC Investment Corp. Depositary Shares rep 6.875% Series D Fixed-to-Floating Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock$24.49---0.9%6258
AGNCN AGNC Investment Corp. Depositary Shares Each Representing a 1/1000th Interest in a Share of 7.00% Series C Fixed-To-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock$25.22---0.9%6258
AGNC AGNC Investment Corp. Common Stock$8.89--177.8x0.9%6260

Sector report card

Where STWD ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • PR Newswire•Oct 12, 2026
    Starwood Property Trust Announces Date for Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call
  • PR Newswire•Sep 17, 2026
    Starwood Property Trust Announces $0.48 Per Share Dividend for Third Quarter 2026
  • PR Newswire•Sep 14, 2026
    Starwood Capital Promotes Tim Abram to Head of Asset Management, Europe
7 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 2
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-30
View on SEC →
Oct 2
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-30
View on SEC →
Oct 2
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-30
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR