Metrovacesa S.A. (MVC.MC) fair value

ACCE thesis

Metrovacesa is Spain's largest listed residential developer, building and selling homes in Madrid, Barcelona and the coastal markets, alongside a rental portfolio of office and residential assets. Its edge is land: the group holds a large, well-located plot bank in Spain's supply-short urban markets, which lets it keep building through a period when smaller developers are squeezed on financing and permits. Trailing revenue grew 139.5%, though that figure reflects a lumpy delivery schedule rather than a steady run-rate, so the number needs checking against unit closings before anyone leans on it. The real debate is margin: gross margin of 24.6% and operating margin of 8.1% are thin, and a 6.4% ROE on a 27.6x trailing P/E means the market is paying for the cycle turning in its favour, not for current earnings. Worth a deeper look if you can get comfortable with construction cost inflation and mortgage rate sensitivity in Spain; the 24.0x forward P/E implies the consensus expects earnings to rise, and that assumption is what the work should test.