3 models fit Forestar Group Inc Common Stock and they agree: 3 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Bronze51
Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionForestar Group Inc Common Stock (FOR)
Fair value (3 models)
$53.22
ACCE price target
$26.00
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 20 Oct 2026, 15:04 CEST; previously $52.28 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 15:04 CEST.
Price used: $26.09 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
51.0% below
+104.0% to fair value
ACCE score
51
out of 100
Analysts
67% buy
3 covering
P/E
7.8x
forward 9.1x
1-year return
+0.3%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Forestar Group Inc Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Forestar develops residential lots for homebuilders, buying raw land and selling finished lots, mostly to D.R. Horton, its majority owner and largest customer. The moat is thin: the business rests on land acquisition skill and a captive pipeline of builder demand rather than on anything proprietary. Growth is modest at 4.2% revenue growth, and the 7.7x trailing P/E against a 49.0x forward P/E signals earnings that are expected to fall sharply or reset, so the reader should first understand why before paying attention to the trailing multiple. A 9.6% ROE and 11.3% operating margin are respectable for a lot developer but not exceptional, and the score of 50/100 says the quantitative profile is middling. It merits a deeper look only if the forward earnings trough can be understood and the homebuilder lot pipeline can be tied to specific deliveries.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Free cash flow deeply negative
Free cash flow is $-199.9M against a $1.3B market cap, meaning the business consumed heavy cash despite reporting a 9.9% net margin. Earnings quality needs checking before sizing a position.
moderate
Score down sharply in 90 days
The ACCE score fell 13 points from 63 to 50 over 90 days, with Margin scoring just 40. Something in the fundamentals has deteriorated and is worth understanding.
moderate
Forward P/E far above trailing
Trailing P/E is 7.7 but forward P/E is 49.0, implying analysts expect earnings to fall sharply. The gap between the two multiples is a warning about the outlook.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 17, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 12.3% per year on average over five years, showing the business has expanded steadily.
Two-thirds of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and their mean target sits 32.5% above the current price.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -$200M, so the business consumed cash rather than generating it.
Forward earnings are priced at 49.0 times against a sector median of 18.6 times, a steep premium for uncertain profit growth.
Latest quarterly earnings per share came in 14.6% below expectations, a clear miss against what analysts had forecast.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where FOR's valuation models land
Price
$26.09
Model fair value
$53.22
Model range
$49.08 to $58.55
Fair value $53.22
Price $26.09
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores