Aedas Homes, S.A. (AEDAS.MC) fair value

ACCE thesis

Aedas Homes is a Spanish residential developer that builds and sells mid-market apartments and houses, mostly in the Madrid and Barcelona metro areas and on the Costa del Sol, with a land bank sized to keep deliveries running for several years. Its edge is execution at a smaller scale than the large listed builders: it works with a concentrated set of plots and a disciplined pipeline of launches, which has kept gross margins at 26.1% through a cycle that has squeezed many peers. Revenue fell 38.6%, so the near-term story is a lumpy handover schedule rather than demand collapsing, and the question for the portfolio is whether the delivery timing returns to growth. The stock trades at 8.2x forward earnings against 16.0x trailing, a gap that implies the market expects earnings to recover sharply, though ROE of 6.5% and a 11.7% operating margin mean there is little cushion if Spanish mortgage conditions tighten again. This is a name worth a deeper look on the forward multiple and the land bank, with the revenue decline the first thing to explain.