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MTCH
ACCE-researched

Match Group Inc. Common Stock (MTCH) fair value

Communication Services · Internet Content & Information · NASDAQ · United States
$45.73-0.41%
Market cap $10.7BNext earnings 2026-11-02Updated Oct 21, 2026
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Our verdict
Trades 7% above our fair value
Price
$45.73
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$42.85
Model range
$27.31 to $65.89
Fair value $42.85
Price $45.73
4 models fit Match Group Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Silver74
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionMatch Group Inc. Common Stock (MTCH)
Fair value (4 models)
$42.85
ACCE price target
$44.00
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST; previously $42.38 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 27 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: $45.73 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
6.7% above
-6.3% to fair value
ACCE score
77
out of 100
Analysts
35% buy
20 covering
P/E
16.2x
forward 9.7x
1-year return
+39.6%
Dividend yield
1.70%

Match Group Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Match Group runs a portfolio of dating apps, including Tinder, Hinge, Match, and Plenty of Fish, and monetizes mainly through subscriptions and in-app purchases on top of a free tier. The moat is the scale of its paying user base and the brand equity of Tinder and Hinge, which keep it the default choice for many dating app users despite intense competition. The near-term driver is the shift of mix toward Hinge, a higher-engagement product with strong growth, while management works to stabilize Tinder payers. Revenue is shrinking slightly (down 1.2%), but the stock trades at 9.3x forward earnings against a 15.0x trailing multiple, with a 28.8% operating margin and a 49.9% return on equity. At a $9.7B market cap with no index membership, the name is priced for continued decline, which makes the stabilization of Tinder the key question for whether it deserves a deeper look.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 14, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • moderate
    Revenue decline amid growth stall
    Revenue down 1.2% YoY and 1.3% QoQ; 5-year CAGR of only 3.0% suggests mature, saturating market despite strong profitability.
  • moderate
    Insider selling pressure
    Insider sales ($0.98M) outpace buys ($0.11M) by 9x over last 10 disclosures; modest signal of confidence erosion.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Match converts revenue into cash at an exceptional 20.2% net margin, generating $931M in free cash flow.
  • Match's 49.9% return on equity and 5.9% share count reduction demonstrate capital discipline and shareholder value creation.
Why it could disappoint
  • Revenue declined 1.2% year over year despite a 3.0% five-year average, signaling recent momentum loss in core business.
  • Negative 15.67 debt-to-equity ratio indicates heavy net debt funded by buybacks, creating refinancing and capital allocation risk.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 2, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where MTCH's valuation models land
Price
$45.73
Model fair value
$42.85
Model range
$27.31 to $65.89
Fair value $42.85
Price $45.73
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bearish35% buy · 20 covering analysts
● Strong buy 5● Buy 2● Hold 13● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+6.5%
1 month
+13.0%
3 months
+20.6%
6 months
+24.4%
YTD
+41.6%
1 year
+39.6%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CESTFair value$42.85$42.38$46.53
21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CESTRatingFairly valuedfirst publication$46.53
17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$42.38$41.11$44.10
29 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$41.11$42.10$40.55
27 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$44.00first publication$40.55
26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$42.10$43.07$40.80
22 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$43.07$43.70$43.20
19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$43.70$44.47$43.77
17 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$44.47$43.49$44.40
7 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$43.49$42.93$41.86

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth43Value85Quality82Momentum97Total77
Valuation
Trailing P/E
16.2x
Forward P/E
9.7x
PEG
0.35
P/B
10.97x
EV / Revenue
3.6x
Book value/sh
$-1.03
Enterprise value
$12.5B
Profitability
ROE
49.9%
FCF yield
9.71%
ROIC
no data
Health and risk
Debt / equity
-15.67
Dividend yield
1.70%
Beta
1.43

Price

+40.2% · 1Y

Ask anything about MTCH

Answered from Match Group Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 67% of peers
low 0.0x16.2xhigh 152.8x
ROEbetter than 100% of peers
low -16%50%high 50%
Div yieldbetter than 83% of peers
low 0.0%1.7%high 2.8%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
MTCH Match Group Inc. Common Stock$45.73$437% above16.2x49.9%8277
SNAP Snap Inc. Class A Common Stock$6.35----15.6%2960
035720.KS KakaoKRW 30350.00KRW 2023150% above26.4x3.7%6353
PINS Pinterest Inc. Class A Common Stock$22.93$3942% below67.4x6.5%5956
TME Tencent Music Entertainment Group American Depositary Shares each representing two Class A Ordinary Shares$8.60$1229% below10.4x11.0%8162
NAUKRI.NS Info Edge (India) Limited₹1217.50--49.4x-9562
ZG Zillow Group Inc. Class A Common Stock$35.14$2638% above152.8x1.2%5550

Sector report card

Where MTCH ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • PR Newswire•Oct 12, 2026
    Match Group to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Results
  • PR Newswire•Sep 24, 2026
    /C O R R E C T I O N -- Rivet/
  • PR Newswire•Sep 24, 2026
    Rivet launches nationwide introducing a new approach to dating: Social Matching
7 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 2
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-30
View on SEC →
Oct 2
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-30
View on SEC →
Oct 2
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-01
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR