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TME
ACCE-researched

Tencent Music Entertainment Group American Depositary Shares each representing two Class A Ordinary Shares (TME) fair value

Communication Services · Internet Content & Information · NYSE · United States
$8.51-1.05%
Market cap $13.9BNext earnings 2026-11-17Updated Oct 18, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 30% below our fair value
Price
$8.51
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$12.08
Model range
$5.15 to $15.72
Fair value $12.08
Price $8.51
5 models fit Tencent Music Entertainment Group American Depositary Shares each representing two Class A Ordinary Shares and they partly agree: 3 of 5 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Bronze59
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionTencent Music Entertainment Group American Depositary Shares each representing two Class A Ordinary Shares (TME)
Fair value (5 models)
$12.08
ACCE price target
$10.65
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST; previously $11.57 since 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $10.60 since 26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: $8.51 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
29.6% below
+42.0% to fair value
ACCE score
62
out of 100
Analysts
62% buy
29 covering
P/E
10.4x
forward 8.4x
1-year return
-62.7%
Dividend yield
2.79%

Tencent Music Entertainment Group American Depositary Shares each representing two Class A Ordinary Shares in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Tencent Music runs China's largest online music platforms, QQ Music, Kugou and Kuwo, along with a subscription tier that bundles them, and it sells paid social entertainment through its live-streaming and karaoke products. At a $13.9B market cap and a 10.4x trailing P/E, the stock is priced for a business growing revenue at 5.8% with a 29.2% operating margin, a mix that has shifted toward higher-margin subscriptions and away from advertising. The thesis rests on that margin profile and on subscriber monetization in a market where most of the audience has already been converted to paid listening. The forward P/E of 8.4x implies the market expects earnings to rise, but 5.8% top-line growth is modest, so the case depends on operating leverage holding up. The stock carries a 60/100 score and sits outside major index memberships, which may keep it under-owned by passive flows, though the same factor limits liquidity support. Worth a deeper look if you want exposure to China digital consumption at a low multiple and can accept regulatory and competitive risk from Chinese platforms and short-form video.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 14, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Earnings growth collapse
    YoY earnings growth of +2.4% versus revenue growth of +5.8% signals margin compression or one-time headwinds. 5-year CAGR of +5.1% shows structural deceleration.
  • high
    Quality score deterioration
    ACCE Quality subscore at 17/100 is critically low. Combined with Moat score of 40/100, suggests weak competitive position and earnings quality concerns.
  • moderate
    Valuation disconnect
    Low multiples may reflect structural risk, not opportunity.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Trading at 9.7x trailing P/E, well below the 16.7x sector median, despite a 26.3% net margin that exceeds most peers.
  • Consensus analysts see 38% upside to fair value, with 59% of analysts rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
  • Strong cash generation of CNY 7.1B in free cash flow supports a 3.0% dividend yield and 0.21 debt-to-equity ratio.
Why it could disappoint
  • Revenue growth has slowed to 5.8% year over year, matching only the 5-year average, signaling limited acceleration ahead.
  • Current valuation implies negative 1.6% cash flow growth over the next five years, pricing in stagnation or decline.
  • ROE of 11.0% and ROIC of 10.8% lag the 5.2% risk-free rate, suggesting capital is not being deployed efficiently.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 17, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where TME's valuation models land
Price
$8.51
Model fair value
$12.08
Model range
$5.15 to $15.72
Fair value $12.08
Price $8.51
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish62% buy · 29 covering analysts
● Strong buy 15● Buy 3● Hold 11● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
-1.4%
1 month
+3.5%
3 months
-4.0%
6 months
-8.9%
YTD
-51.5%
1 year
-62.7%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CESTFair value$12.08$11.57$8.63
18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CESTRatingUndervaluedfirst publication$8.63
18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CESTACCE price target$10.65$10.60$8.63
10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$11.57$20.23$7.96
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$20.23$20.81$56.32
26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$10.60first publication$8.39
25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$20.81$21.84$55.13
23 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$21.84$21.01$54.70
18 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$21.01$21.29$52.45
16 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$21.29$20.93$54.41

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth40Value100Quality81Momentum25Total62
Valuation
Trailing P/E
10.4x
Forward P/E
8.4x
PEG
4.34
P/B
1.09x
EV / Revenue
2.1x
Book value/sh
¥7.10
Enterprise value
$11.2B
Profitability
ROE
11.0%
FCF yield
10.74%
ROIC
10.8%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.05
Dividend yield
2.79%
Beta
0.75

Price

-62.8% · 1Y

Ask anything about TME

Answered from Tencent Music Entertainment Group American Depositary Shares each representing two Class A Ordinary Shares fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 67% of peers
low 0.0x10.4xhigh 67.4x
ROEbetter than 50% of peers
low -16%11%high 50%
Div yieldbetter than 100% of peers
low 0.0%2.8%high 2.8%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
TME Tencent Music Entertainment Group American Depositary Shares each representing two Class A Ordinary Shares$8.51$1230% below10.4x11.0%8162
PINS Pinterest Inc. Class A Common Stock$22.93$3942% below67.4x6.5%5956
REA.AX REA Group LimitedA$166.05A$82103% above31.6x34.9%10054
1024.HK Kuaishou TechnologyHK$26.78HK$5350% below6.7x20.6%7351
SNAP Snap Inc. Class A Common Stock$6.35----15.6%2960
MTCH Match Group Inc. Common Stock$45.92$437% above16.2x49.9%8277
035720.KS KakaoKRW 30350.00KRW 2023150% above26.4x3.7%6353

Sector report card

Where TME ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • PR Newswire•Oct 13, 2026
    Tencent Music Entertainment Group to Report Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results on November 17, 2026
  • PR Newswire•Sep 10, 2026
    Tencent Music Entertainment Group Announces Closing of US$1,000 Million Notes Offering
  • PR Newswire•Sep 8, 2026
    BIGBANG 2026-2027 WORLD TOUR < XX: COSMOS > IN HONG KONG Officially Announced
13 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
25 filings of 40
October 2026
Oct 19
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-15
View on SEC →
Oct 19
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-15
View on SEC →
Oct 19
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-15
View on SEC →
22 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR