2 models fit Zillow Group Inc. Class A Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionZillow Group Inc. Class A Common Stock (ZG)
Fair value (2 models)
$25.53
ACCE price target
$34.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $18.65 since 5 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 27 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $34.05 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
33.4% above
-25.0% to fair value
ACCE score
50
out of 100
Analysts
46% buy
24 covering
P/E
152.8x
forward 32.6x
1-year return
-54.3%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Zillow Group Inc. Class A Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Zillow Group runs the Zillow, Trulia and Hotpads consumer real estate sites, sells agent and broker advertising on them, and earns revenue from its Premier Agent and Zillow Home Loans businesses. The moat is the traffic: its sites draw the largest share of U.S. home shoppers, which is what keeps agents paying for leads and makes the platform hard to replicate. Revenue grew 17.9% and the gross margin sits at 72.9%, but the operating margin is only 4.7% and trailing earnings are thin (trailing P/E 125.4 against a forward P/E of 9.7), so the stock hinges on whether that gap closes. The near-term case rests on housing turnover recovering from multi-year lows, which would lift both agent spending and mortgage origination volume, and on operating leverage as the marketing spend stabilises. A score of 48/100 and a 1.2% ROE mean the profitability case is not yet proven, so this merits a deeper look at the margin path and the housing-cycle assumptions rather than a conclusion on the headline numbers.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Extreme valuation disconnect
P/E 129.9 vs forward P/E 10.1 signals earnings are expected to collapse 92% YoY.
high
Earnings quality concern
YoY earnings +533% but net margin only 2.0% and ROE 1.2%. Earnings spike appears driven by one-time items or accounting adjustments, not sustainable operations.
moderate
Insider selling pressure
Last 10 disclosures show $2.42M in sales, zero buys. Insiders are exiting despite stock trading near fair value, a mild negative signal.
moderate
High short interest
20.2% short ratio is elevated. Combined with extreme P/E and earnings volatility, suggests significant bearish positioning and potential for sharp moves.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue accelerated to 17.9% year-over-year growth, signaling successful Superapp monetization and market recovery traction.
Analyst consensus targets $47.10, implying 57.7% upside, with 46% of analysts rating Buy or Strong Buy.
Why it could disappoint
Five-year revenue declined 25.2% annually on average, showing the business has shrunk substantially despite recent recovery.
Net margin of 2.0% and ROE of 1.2% indicate the company barely generates profit on capital deployed, limiting reinvestment capacity.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where ZG's valuation models land
Price
$34.05
Model fair value
$25.53
Model range
$13.41 to $37.64
Fair value $25.53
Price $34.05
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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