2 models fit Middlesex Water Company Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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ACCE opinionMiddlesex Water Company Common Stock (MSEX)
Fair value (2 models)
$41.32
ACCE price target
$52.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 24 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST; previously $45.47 since 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 13 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 24 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: $56.03 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
35.6% above
-26.3% to fair value
ACCE score
62
out of 100
Analysts
50% buy
2 covering
P/E
21.6x
forward 18.9x
1-year return
-7.2%
Dividend yield
2.58%
Middlesex Water Company Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Middlesex Water runs regulated water and wastewater utilities across New Jersey, Delaware and Pennsylvania, earning returns on rate base set by state commissions rather than on volume or pricing power in a competitive market. The structural case rests on that regulated model: capital spent on pipe replacement and treatment upgrades gets added to rate base, and the company has a 14.3% revenue growth rate to show for it. Near-term progress depends on timely rate case approvals and on how quickly new infrastructure earns its allowed return. At 20.8 times trailing earnings and 28.6 times forward, the market is paying a premium for that growth, and the 9.8% return on equity is modest for a business this capital-intensive, so the question for a deeper look is whether the rate base expansion is lifting earnings fast enough to justify the multiple.
⚠ Investor warnings · 1 flagAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Negative free cash flow
Free cash flow is -$33.8M despite net margin of 23.3% and EPS growth of 31.6%. The gap is likely capex-driven, but it means earnings are not yet converting to cash. Debt/Equity is 0.84.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 14.3% year over year, well ahead of its 6.6% average pace over five years.
Analysts' mean price target of $61.00 sits 11.7% above the share price, and the latest quarter beat expectations by 12.9%.
The stock pays a 2.6% dividend yield while trading at 18.3x forward earnings, below the sector median of 19.8x.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -$34M, driven by heavy capital spending.
The share price of $56.03 trades 35.6% above the model fair value of $41.32, and the consensus sits 17.2% below the price.
Return on invested capital of 3.8% is low, and return on equity of 9.8% is modest for a company carrying debt equal to 0.84 times equity.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where MSEX's valuation models land
Price
$56.03
Model fair value
$41.32
Model range
$33.83 to $48.80
Fair value $41.32
Price $56.03
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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