Aguas Andinas S.A (AGUAS-A.SN) fair value

ACCE thesis

Aguas Andinas is Santiago's regulated water and sanitation utility, supplying drinking water and collecting and treating wastewater for most of the metropolitan area's households and businesses under a tariff set by Chile's regulator. The moat is the franchise itself: a sole-provider concession with an 85.3% gross margin and a 32.9% operating margin, which is what you would expect from a business where the network cannot be duplicated and returns are set by formula rather than competition. Revenue is growing 6.6%, a pace that tracks tariff indexation and customer base growth more than any new product cycle, so the question is whether regulated returns keep pace with the capital the company must spend. At 14.4 times trailing and 12.1 times forward earnings, the stock is priced for steady compounding rather than a re-rating, and a 10.7% ROE says the equity base is working at a modest rate. The stock carries a 52/100 score and sits outside major index memberships, which argues for a deeper look at the tariff review calendar and capex plan before any conviction is formed.