3 models fit Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. Ordinary Shares and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)
Valued as a utility: Dividend discount, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Discounted cash flow.
ACCE opinionConsolidated Water Co. Ltd. Ordinary Shares (CWCO)
Fair value (3 models)
$28.23
ACCE price target
$29.00
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $23.45 since 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $27.79 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
1.6% below
+1.6% to fair value
ACCE score
37
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
1 covering
P/E
27.2x
forward 20.4x
1-year return
-21.2%
Dividend yield
2.00%
Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. Ordinary Shares in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Consolidated Water runs desalination plants and water distribution operations, mostly in the Cayman Islands, the Bahamas and Mexico, and sells bulk and retail water under long-term utility-style contracts. The moat is regulatory and contractual: once a desal plant is permitted and under contract, it is hard to displace, which is why the business carries a 35.4% gross margin and a sub-30x trailing multiple for a utility of this size. Against that, revenue fell 2.1% and the operating margin of 11.3% and ROE of 7.5% are thin for an asset-heavy business, so the case rests on margin recovery rather than top-line growth. The forward P/E of 21.0 against a trailing 28.2 implies the market expects earnings to rise, and that gap is the number to test first. At a 461M market cap with no index membership, the name is small and under-followed, so the question for the portfolio manager is whether the contracted backlog supports that earnings step-up, which warrants a deeper look at the contract schedule and the Mexico segment.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Earnings declining despite revenue
Earnings fell 22.7% YoY while revenue slipped 2.1%, and net margin is still 12.7%. The earnings drop is the sharper of the two, so it's worth checking the cause.
moderate
Score drifting lower
The ACCE score dropped from 40 to 37 over 90 days, with Momentum at 17/100 as the weakest component. Direction is negative, though the move is small.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Trailing free cash flow of $33M and a 7.5% free cash flow yield show the business generates real cash for shareholders.
Debt to equity of 0.01 leaves the balance sheet nearly free of borrowings, giving the company room to absorb shocks.
Analysts' mean price target of $43.00 sits 58.4% above the current share price, and every rating on file is Buy or Strong Buy.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 2.1% year over year, well short of the 12.7% five-year average growth rate that earlier investors were used to.
Return on equity of 7.5% and return on invested capital of 6.7% are thin returns for the capital the company employs.
The stock trades 1.6% below the model fair value of $28.23, and the current price implies only 1.6% yearly cash flow growth, which is not a demanding bar to clear.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 9, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where CWCO's valuation models land
Price
$27.79
Model fair value
$28.23
Model range
$18.26 to $40.43
Fair value $28.23
Price $27.79
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
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Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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