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MRL.MC
ACCE-researched

Merlin Properties (MRL.MC) fair value

Real Estate · REIT - Office · BME · Spain
€11.25-0.53%
Market cap €6.9BNext earnings 2026-11-12Updated Oct 17, 2026
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Our verdict
Trades 215% above our fair value
Price
€11.25
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
€3.57
Only one of our models could value this stock with confidence, so use it as a guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a REIT (property company): Price to FFO and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionMerlin Properties (MRL.MC)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
€11.70
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: €11.25 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: EV/EBITDA comparison and Price to FFO.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
61
out of 100
P/E
7.6x
forward 22.1x
1-year return
-18.5%
Dividend yield
1.95%

Merlin Properties in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Merlin Properties is a Spanish REIT whose portfolio is built around telecom towers, data centres and logistics assets, with a market capitalisation of about EUR 7.2 billion. The structural case rests on long-dated contracts with mobile operators and hyperscale or enterprise tenants, which give cash flows that are contracted and inflation-linked rather than tied to a retail cycle. Near-term growth is driven by data centre capacity coming online and by rising demand for network and cloud infrastructure in Spain and Iberia. The stock screens cheaply on trailing earnings at a P/E of 7.9 against a forward P/E of 20.9, a gap that by itself points to a sharp expected drop in reported earnings or to one-off items in the trailing figure, so the first task is to reconcile the two. Sector, revenue growth, margins and ROE are not in our dataset, so the business description above should be checked against the latest filings before any position is sized.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 17, 2026

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 17, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-16 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • The trailing P/E of 7.9x looks low against the rest of the market, suggesting the shares are cheap on reported earnings.
  • The dividend yield of 1.9% gives income holders a cash return while they wait for the share price to move.
  • At EUR 11.66 a share, the stock is priced at a level that already reflects a sharp drop in earnings, so expectations are modest.
Why it could disappoint
  • The forward P/E of 20.9x is nearly three times the trailing 7.9x, so the cheap-looking multiple may not survive forecast earnings.
  • Trailing profit may include property revaluation gains that are unlikely to repeat, which would make the reported earnings base unreliable.
  • A 1.9% yield is modest, and the dividend could be stretched if forward earnings fall well short of the trailing figure.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 12, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where MRL.MC's valuation models land
Price
€11.25
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
€3.57
Model
Fair value
Upside
EV/EBITDA comparison
Price to FFO
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Quality

INVESTOR
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  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

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Smart Money

PRO

In one line

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Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
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Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Recent performance

1 week
-3.5%
1 month
-10.1%
3 months
-26.7%
6 months
-25.1%
YTD
-9.5%
1 year
-18.5%

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target€11.70first publication€11.66

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

This security trades in EUR. Exchange-rate movements can increase or reduce the result in your own currency.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth68Value79Quality81Momentum17Total61
Valuation
Trailing P/E
7.6x
Forward P/E
22.1x
PEG
2.48
P/B
0.84x
EV / Revenue
19.2x
Book value/sh
€15.00
Enterprise value
€11.2B
Profitability
ROE
9.9%
FCF yield
5.78%
ROIC
0.8%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.63
Dividend yield
1.95%
Beta
0.93

Price

-18.1% · 1Y

Ask anything about MRL.MC

Answered from Merlin Properties fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 83% of peers
low 0.0x7.6xhigh 858.5x
ROEbetter than 100% of peers
low -4%10%high 10%
Div yieldbetter than 0% of peers
low 1.9%1.9%high 8.8%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
MRL.MC Merlin Properties€11.25--7.6x9.9%8161
ARE Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc. Common Stock$43.33----4.1%5142
8951.T Nippon Building Fund Inc.¥120500.00--24.4x5.9%7647
VNO Vornado Realty Trust Common Stock$34.34--858.5x0.6%5045
BXP BXP Inc. Common Stock$61.49$18250% above33.1x5.3%5744
GFC.PA Gecina€63.85--29.3x1.6%7341
CUZ Cousins Properties Incorporated Common Stock$28.67--716.8x0.1%5964

Sector report card

Where MRL.MC ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…