Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Treated as a REIT (property company). None of the usual models had enough data, so this uses Analyst consensus and P/E comparison instead.
ACCE opinionGecina (GFC.PA)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
€63.20
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Price used: €63.90 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
41
out of 100
P/E
29.3x
forward 9.6x
1-year return
-23.2%
Dividend yield
8.81%
Gecina in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Gecina owns and manages Paris office buildings and a smaller residential portfolio, leasing space to corporate tenants on long-dated, index-linked leases in the core business district. The moat is location and scarcity: its prime Paris stock is hard to replicate, and a gross margin of 79.1% and operating margin of 64.4% show how much of rent falls through to the bottom line once buildings are let. Revenue growth of 4.1% is modest, so the case rests less on top-line acceleration than on the gap between a trailing P/E of 29.3 and a forward P/E of 9.6, which implies a sharp expected rebound in earnings that we have not yet verified. With ROE at just 1.6%, the balance sheet and depreciation burden are absorbing most of the economics, which is the first thing to test. Worth a deeper look if the forward earnings estimates hold up under scrutiny of leasing spreads, vacancy and debt costs.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Negative free cash flow
Free cash flow is reported at $-490,778,000 against a EUR 4.6B market cap. Negative FCF means dividends and capex are being funded from elsewhere, which leaves little cushion if financing tightens.
moderate
Earnings collapse year on year
Earnings are down 99.0% YoY while revenue grew 4.1%. Net margin of 18.4% and ROE of 1.6% suggest the bottom line is heavily affected by one-off items or valuation adjustments that need checking.
moderate
Stretched trailing valuation
Trailing P/E is 28.7 and EV/EBITDA is 34.1 at a price of €63.90, against a forward P/E of 9.8. The gap between trailing and forward multiples signals the forecast rests on a sharp earnings rebound.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts' mean price target of EUR 85.73 sits 38.5% above the current share price.
The forward P/E of 9.8x is well below the sector median of 14.4x, suggesting the shares look cheap on earnings expectations.
A dividend yield of 8.9% pays shareholders well while they wait for the share price to recover.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last 12 months was negative at -EUR 491M, so the business is consuming cash.
Return on equity of 1.6% and return on invested capital of 2.1% show very little profit earned on the capital tied up.
The latest earnings per share came in 43.5% below expectations, with 1.95 reported against 3.45 forecast.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Feb 10, 2027
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where GFC.PA's valuation models land
Price
€63.90
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about €91.37
Model
Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
P/E comparison
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Quality
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Analysts
Wall Street consensus
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Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
+Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
+ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
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