2 models fit COPT Defense Properties Common Shares of Beneficial Interest and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze53
Valued as a REIT (property company): Price to FFO, Dividend discount, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionCOPT Defense Properties Common Shares of Beneficial Interest (CDP)
Fair value (2 models)
$20.48
ACCE price target
$35.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $20.56 since 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST.
Price used: $33.93 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Dividend discount, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Price to FFO.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
65.7% above
-39.6% to fair value
ACCE score
62
out of 100
Analysts
63% buy
8 covering
P/E
23.6x
forward 23.2x
1-year return
+19.4%
Dividend yield
3.78%
COPT Defense Properties Common Shares of Beneficial Interest in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
COPT Defense Properties owns and operates a portfolio of office and data center buildings concentrated around Washington, D.C. and Maryland, with a large tenant base of U.S. government agencies and defense contractors. The structural case rests on that tenant mix: government and defense users sign long leases in secure campuses that are hard to replicate, which supports occupancy and rent durability in a sector where most office REITs are struggling. The near-term story is the shift toward data center and mission-critical space within the portfolio, which the company is developing alongside its traditional office assets. Trading at 23.2x trailing earnings but 38.2x forward, the market is pricing in a steep earnings trough or a slow ramp, so the question for a PM is whether the 3.9% revenue growth and 32.2% operating margin are the start of a re-rating or the plateau. With a 62/100 score and no index membership, the name sits outside most benchmarks, so it merits a deeper look on the lease roll schedule and development pipeline before any conclusion is reached.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Stretched valuation versus model
Price trades 65.7% above the model fair value of $20.48, and forward P/E of 38.2 sits well above trailing P/E of 23.1, so earnings must improve sharply to justify the price.
high
Leverage elevated
Debt/Equity of 1.86 is high for a REIT already carrying a 10.4% short interest, leaving limited room if financing costs rise or occupancy softens.
moderate
Score slipping over 90 days
ACCE score fell from 66 to 62 over 90 days, with Growth at 56 and Value at 53, while revenue growth slowed to 3.9% year over year.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts are fairly positive, with 63% (5 of 8) rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and their mean price target sits well above the current price.
Free cash flow of $254M over the last twelve months gives a free cash flow yield of 6.6%, and the dividend yield is 3.8%.
Revenue grew 3.9% over the past year and averaged 5.5% a year over five years, while the company beat earnings expectations by 4.4% last quarter.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades 65.7% above the model fair value of $20.48, and the consensus of two valuation models points to a lower price.
Return on invested capital is only 2.9%, and debt equals 1.86 times equity, so returns are thin against a heavy debt load.
The forward P/E of 38.2x is well above the trailing 23.1x, so the price already assumes earnings growth that has yet to show up.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where CDP's valuation models land
Price
$33.93
Model fair value
$20.48
Model range
$11.81 to $30.59
Fair value $20.48
Price $33.93
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Price to FFO
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores