4 models fit Mattel Inc. Common Stock and they partly agree: 2 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Discount(i)Silver75
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionMattel Inc. Common Stock (MAT)
Fair value (4 models)
$19.69
ACCE price target
$19.50
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 20 Oct 2026, 15:04 CEST; previously $19.91 since 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 15:04 CEST.
Price used: $16.41 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
16.7% below
+20.0% to fair value
ACCE score
65
out of 100
Analysts
67% buy
15 covering
P/E
12.1x
forward 10.4x
1-year return
-14.4%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Mattel Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Mattel makes Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price and UNO, and sells them through mass retailers and its own direct-to-consumer channel. The moat here is brand and licensing scale: a 47.6% gross margin is high for a toy maker and points to pricing power on franchises that have decades of recognition behind them. Revenue growth of 10.5% and a 20.5% ROE show the top line and returns are running ahead of most of the sector, though the 1.3% operating margin means nearly all of that gross profit is being absorbed by overhead and marketing before it reaches shareholders. At 8.5x forward earnings against a 12.8x trailing multiple, the market is pricing in a meaningful decline in the earnings base or doubting that the current margin structure holds, and that gap between gross and operating margin is the first thing to resolve. A 65/100 score with no index membership puts this in the bucket for a deeper look at cost structure and cash conversion, not a conclusion.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Margins barely positive
Operating margin is only +1.3% and earnings fell 18.5% YoY despite 10.5% revenue growth, so thin profitability leaves little cushion against a downturn.
moderate
Leverage and short interest
Debt/Equity of 1.20 and a short interest of 16.7% point to a leveraged balance sheet and a meaningful bearish bet against the stock.
moderate
Sharp quarter-on-quarter drop
Quarter-on-quarter change of -51.2% is a large swing that warrants checking whether it reflects seasonality or a genuine deterioration.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $411M, and the stock yields 8.4% on that cash flow.
Diluted share count fell 7.3% last fiscal year, so each remaining share now carries a larger slice of the business.
Analysts rate 67% of coverage (10 of 15) Buy or Strong Buy, and their mean price target sits 7.3% above the share price.
Why it could disappoint
Latest quarterly earnings per share missed expectations by 66.7%, coming in at 0.01 against 0.03 expected.
Return on invested capital is only 6.6%, and debt to equity stands at 1.20, which leaves little margin for error.
Tariff costs on toys sourced from Asia remain a high-rated risk, and the stock's 5-year revenue growth averages only 3.1% a year.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where MAT's valuation models land
Price
$16.41
Model fair value
$19.69
Model range
$14.69 to $23.36
Fair value $19.69
Price $16.41
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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