2 models fit Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. Common Stock and they agree: 2 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a REIT (property company): Price to FFO and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionMid-America Apartment Communities Inc. Common Stock (MAA)
Fair value (2 models)
$105
ACCE price target
$129
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $108 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $120 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: EV/EBITDA comparison and Price to FFO.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
13.6% above
-12.0% to fair value
ACCE score
48
out of 100
Analysts
35% buy
26 covering
P/E
35.4x
forward 33.6x
1-year return
-10.9%
Dividend yield
5.18%
Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Mid-America Apartment Communities owns and operates garden-style apartment communities concentrated in the Sunbelt, with a portfolio spanning Texas, Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas, and a market capitalisation of about $13.9 billion. Its structural case rests on that footprint: population and job migration into these metros has supported rent demand, and the company's scale in a fragmented private-owner market gives it purchasing and operating advantages. The near-term swing factor is supply: a wave of new apartment completions in several of its markets has pressured rents and concessions, and the question is how quickly absorption catches up. Revenue growth of 1.0% and a 7.0% return on equity are weak for a stock trading at 34x trailing earnings and 35.5x forward, so the valuation is pricing in a recovery in rent growth that the current numbers do not yet show. The score of 47/100 and the absence of index membership point to a name the market has not yet warmed to, which makes it a candidate for a deeper look at lease-rate trends and same-store NOI guidance before any conclusion is drawn.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Valuation multiple compression risk
Forward P/E of 35.6 and EV/EBITDA of 15.6 are elevated for a REIT with only 1.0% revenue growth and 3.0% 5-year CAGR. Multiple contraction could offset earnings gains.
moderate
Leverage at elevated levels
Debt/Equity ratio of 1.02 is high for a residential REIT. Combined with modest revenue growth, refinancing risk or rate sensitivity warrants monitoring.
moderate
Quality score deterioration
ACCE Quality score of 69 is solid, but Growth (39) and Profitability (34) scores are weak. Insider sales ($0.31M) exceed buys ($0.14M) over last 10 disclosures.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow of $921M supports a 6.6% yield, providing downside protection and funding for the 5.3% dividend.
Analyst mean price target of $141.40 implies 21.0% upside from current levels, with 35% of analysts rating Buy or Strong Buy.
Net margin of 18.2% and minimal share dilution of 0.3% show disciplined capital allocation and operational efficiency.
Why it could disappoint
Trailing P/E of 34.2x and forward P/E of 35.6x trade well above historical norms for apartment REITs with 1% revenue growth.
ROE of 7.0% and ROIC of 3.3% lag cost of capital, indicating capital is not being deployed productively for shareholders.
Consensus fair value of $108.40 sits 7.2% below the current $116.86 share price, suggesting limited margin of safety.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 28, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where MAA's valuation models land
Price
$119.78
Model fair value
$105
Model range
$102 to $109
Fair value $105
Price $120
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
EV/EBITDA comparison
Price to FFO
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Quality
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Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores