3 models fit LSB Industries Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionLSB Industries Inc. Common Stock (LXU)
Fair value (3 models)
$7.82
ACCE price target
$10.70
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $7.68 since 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $9.89 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
26.5% above
-20.9% to fair value
ACCE score
45
out of 100
Analysts
60% buy
5 covering
P/E
19.5x
forward 13.2x
1-year return
+5.7%
Dividend yield
0.00%
LSB Industries Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
LSB Industries makes nitrogen fertilizers and industrial chemicals, including ammonia, nitric acid and ammonium nitrate, sold to agricultural and mining customers. The case rests on a cost-advantaged, domestically integrated ammonia franchise rather than on a broad product set, so margins swing with natural gas and nitrogen prices. Revenue grew 11.1% over the latest period, and the forward P/E of 13.2 sits well below the trailing 20.9, which implies the market expects earnings to recover. The problem is that the operating margin is still slightly negative at -1.6% on a 17.3% gross margin, and ROE of 7.1% leaves little cushion. It merits a deeper look only if you have a view on nitrogen pricing and whether the earnings recovery in the forward estimates is credible; the 45/100 score says the current fundamentals do not yet make that case on their own.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse year over year
Earnings are down 69.2% YoY while revenue grew 11.1%. Operating margin is negative at -1.6%, so the profit squeeze is in the operations, not just below the line.
moderate
Leverage and thin free cash flow
Debt/Equity is 0.94 with only $18M of free cash flow against a $706M market cap. Little cushion if earnings stay weak.
moderate
Score down sharply in 90 days
ACCE Score fell 16 points, from 63 to 47, over the last 90 days. Growth (G:40) and quality (Q:38) are the weakest components.
moderate
Insider selling outweighs buying
Last 10 disclosed insider trades total $0.59M in sales against $0.02M in buys. Small in absolute terms, but one-directional.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 13, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 11.1% year over year and has averaged 11.9% a year over five years, so the top line is expanding.
At $9.81 the stock trades at 13.2 times forward earnings, below the sector median of 17.2 times.
Analysts' mean price target of $13.00 sits 32.5% above the share price, and 60% of covering analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy.
Why it could disappoint
Consensus fair value of $7.84 is 20.1% below the share price, so most valuation models say the stock is expensive.
Return on invested capital of 2.0% and return on equity of 7.1% show the business earns little on the capital it uses.
The latest quarter's earnings per share came in at -0.09 against 0.36 expected, a 125.0% miss, and debt sits at 0.94 times equity.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 28, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where LXU's valuation models land
Price
$9.89
Model fair value
$7.82
Model range
$4.57 to $11.40
Fair value $7.82
Price $9.89
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores