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IX
ACCE-researched

ORIX Corporation American Depositary Shares (IX) fair value

Financial Services · Financial Conglomerates · NYSE · United States
$36.48-0.65%
Market cap $39.5BNext earnings 2026-11-11Updated Oct 18, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 15% below our fair value
Price
$36.48
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$42.70
Model range
$26.05 to $61.28
Fair value $42.70
Price $36.48
5 models fit ORIX Corporation American Depositary Shares and they disagree: 1 of 5 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Discount(i)Silver78
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionORIX Corporation American Depositary Shares (IX)
Fair value (5 models)
$42.70
ACCE price target
$38.00
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST; previously $43.24 since 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $40.00 since 20 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: $36.48 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
14.6% below
+17.1% to fair value
ACCE score
78
out of 100
Analysts
0% buy
1 covering
P/E
10.2x
forward 14.2x
1-year return
+45.0%
Dividend yield
2.69%

ORIX Corporation American Depositary Shares in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

ORIX Corporation is a Tokyo-based financial conglomerate whose American Depositary Shares (IX) give U.S. investors exposure to its equipment leasing, asset management, corporate lending, insurance and real estate businesses, with a growing private-equity and renewable-energy footprint. The structural case rests on a diversified fee-and-spread model that has held a 14.0% return on equity while reporting 17.4% revenue growth and a 21.5% operating margin. The shares trade at 10.2 times trailing earnings and 3.1 times forward earnings, a gap that is large enough to warrant checking whether the forward estimates are reliable or are being pulled by one-off items. The stock carries no index membership, which leaves it under-owned by passive vehicles and may partly explain the discount. The next step is to reconcile the forward earnings base against reported segment profits and to examine how much of the recent growth came from asset sales versus recurring income.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 13, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Massive insider selling
    Last 10 disclosed transactions show $278.98M in sales, zero buys. Signals lack of confidence despite strong recent earnings.
  • high
    Earnings spike unsustainability risk
    YoY earnings up 170.6% but sequential revenue down 2.7%. Spike may reflect one-time gains rather than operational momentum.
  • moderate
    High financial leverage
    Debt/Equity 1.46 is elevated for a financial conglomerate. Limits flexibility if credit conditions tighten or asset quality deteriorates.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue grew 17.4% year over year, well above the 9.0% five-year average, showing accelerating business momentum.
  • At 10.3x trailing P/E and 0.6% free cash flow yield, the stock trades below sector median forward P/E of 11.9x.
Why it could disappoint
  • Latest earnings missed expectations by 51.6%, raising questions about the sustainability of reported profit growth.
  • Return on invested capital of 3.5% lags the 5.2% risk-free rate, meaning capital deployed earns below risk-free returns.
  • Debt to equity of 1.46 is elevated for a financial services conglomerate, limiting financial flexibility and raising refinancing risk.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 11, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where IX's valuation models land
Price
$36.48
Model fair value
$42.70
Model range
$26.05 to $61.28
Fair value $42.70
Price $36.48
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bearish0% buy · 1 covering analyst
● Strong buy 0● Buy 0● Hold 1● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
-1.1%
1 month
-6.7%
3 months
-9.5%
6 months
+20.0%
YTD
+24.8%
1 year
+45.0%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CESTRatingUndervaluedfirst publication$36.89
18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CESTFair value$42.70$43.24$36.89
18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CESTACCE price target$38.00$40.00$36.89
15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$43.24$38.26$36.84
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$38.26$31.40$36.95
4 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$31.40$31.95$5853
26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$31.95$32.69$6087
21 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$32.69$33.37$6205
20 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$40.00first publication$39.30
7 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$33.37$34.18$6240

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth88Value61Quality70Momentum91Total78
Valuation
Trailing P/E
10.2x
Forward P/E
14.2x
PEG
0.06
P/B
1.36x
EV / Revenue
5.6x
Book value/sh
¥27.19
Enterprise value
$5.51T
Profitability
ROE
14.0%
FCF yield
0.60%
ROIC
3.5%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
1.46
Dividend yield
2.69%
Beta
0.74

Price

+46.7% · 1Y

Ask anything about IX

Answered from ORIX Corporation American Depositary Shares fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 83% of peers
low 4.7x10.2xhigh 66.5x
ROEbetter than 75% of peers
low 10%14%high 23%
Div yieldbetter than 67% of peers
low 0.0%2.7%high 3.5%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
IX ORIX Corporation American Depositary Shares$36.48$4315% below10.2x14.0%7078
8591.T ORIX Corporation¥5732.00--10.4x14.0%7080
BAJAJFINSV.NS Bajaj Finserv Ltd.₹1655.00--26.3x-6856
8473.T SBI Holdings, Inc.¥2925.00--4.7x23.4%7771
FRHC Freedom Holding Corp. Common Stock$171.22--66.5x10.7%5353
ABCAPITAL.NS Aditya Birla Capital Limited₹347.25--23.0x-5271
VOYA Voya Financial Inc. Common Stock$95.81$10912% below16.1x9.6%5960

Sector report card

Where IX ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Sep 23, 2026
    Anchorage Capital Advisors Meaningfully Expands CLO Platform with Acquisition of 11 CLOs from ORIX Advisers
  • PR Newswire•Sep 10, 2026
    Hilco Global Appoints Chris George as Global Head of Healthcare for Professional Services
  • Business Wire•Sep 3, 2026
    ORIX USA Expands Multifamily Equity Portfolio with Three Separate Investments Across Key U.S. Markets
2 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 5
6-KForeign current reportPeriod 2026-10-05
View on SEC →
September 2026
Sep 3
6-KForeign current reportPeriod 2026-09-03
View on SEC →
August 2026
Aug 7
6-KForeign current reportPeriod 2026-08-07
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR