Financial Services · Financial Conglomerates · TSE · Japan
¥5732.00-0.57%
Market cap ¥6.17TNext earnings 2026-11-09Updated Oct 24, 2026 · valuation updating
Our verdict
No fair value
We are missing the financial data our models need for this company. It will appear once the data arrives.
Not valued: there are no financial statements on file yet.
ACCE opinionORIX Corporation (8591.T)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
¥5207
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Price used: ¥5732 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 08:30 CEST.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
80
out of 100
P/E
10.4x
forward 15.4x
1-year return
+49.6%
Dividend yield
2.94%
ORIX Corporation in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
ORIX is a Tokyo-listed financial conglomerate whose businesses span equipment leasing, lending, asset management (including Orix's stakes in listed asset managers), insurance, aircraft and rail leasing, and real estate and concession operations. Its moat is the breadth of its origination and servicing franchise across Japan and Asia, which lets it generate fee income from managing assets on behalf of others alongside its balance-sheet lending. Revenue growth of 17.4% and a 14.0% ROE are strong for a company of this type, and the 21.5% operating margin suggests the mix is not reliant on thin-margin lending alone. The valuation is the reason to look closer: a trailing P/E of 10.4 against a forward P/E of 15.5 implies the market is pricing earnings to decline from current levels, which is worth checking against the company's guidance and the reasons behind it. The next step is to test whether the forward earnings cut is conservative and whether the growth in revenue is translating into durable profit.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Earnings growth flattered by base effects
Earnings rose 170.6% YoY while revenue grew 17.4% and QoQ revenue fell 2.7%. A spike this large usually reflects a weak prior period or one-offs, so the run rate is harder to read.
moderate
Leverage elevated for a financial group
Debt/Equity of 1.30 and EV/EBITDA of 10.3 leave limited room if funding costs rise or asset quality weakens. Free cash flow is not reported, so cash generation cannot be checked against the debt load.
moderate
Trading above ACCE price target
The price of ¥5732.00 sits 10.1% above the ACCE price target of ¥5207.00, which was last updated 2026-10-22. The stock has already moved past our own target.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Latest earnings per share beat expectations by 38.5%, coming in at 256.07 against 184.93 expected.
Analysts' mean price target sits at JPY 7002.22, 21.5% above the current share price of ¥5732.00.
Revenue grew 17.4% over the latest year, well ahead of its 7.7% average annual pace over five years.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades at a forward price to earnings ratio of 15.5x, higher than its trailing multiple of 10.4x.
Debt to equity stands at 1.30, meaning the company carries more borrowing than shareholder capital.
Return on equity of 14.0% and a net margin of 17.9% leave limited room for error if profits slip.
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