Financial Services · Financial Conglomerates · TSE · Japan
¥2925.00-1.32%
Market cap ¥1.89TNext earnings 2026-11-02Updated Oct 24, 2026 · valuation updating
Our verdict
No fair value
We are missing the financial data our models need for this company. It will appear once the data arrives.
Not valued: there are no financial statements on file yet.
ACCE opinionSBI Holdings, Inc. (8473.T)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
¥3248
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Price used: ¥2925 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 08:30 CEST.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
71
out of 100
P/E
4.7x
forward 7.2x
1-year return
-10.2%
Dividend yield
3.54%
SBI Holdings, Inc. in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
SBI Holdings is a Tokyo-based financial conglomerate whose earnings come mainly from online brokerage (SBI Securities), retail banking and insurance through its SBI Sumishin and SBI Life subsidiaries, and a large asset management and venture capital arm. The group's structural edge is its scale in Japanese online brokerage and its ability to cross-sell banking, insurance and crypto services to a retail customer base that has been moving away from branch-based incumbents. Revenue grew 28.8% over the latest reported period, with a 54.3% operating margin and a 23.4% ROE, which together point to a franchise earning well above its cost of capital. At a trailing P/E of 4.7 and a forward P/E of 7.3, the market is pricing in a sharp drop in earnings or a large discount for a conglomerate structure, and that gap is what makes the name worth a deeper look. The diligence question is whether the trading and investment gains that flow through the top line are repeatable, and how much of the valuation discount reflects the holding-company structure and governance rather than the operating businesses.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Negative free cash flow
Free cash flow is reported at $-569,767,100,416 against a JPY 1.9T market cap. Cash generation does not support the reported earnings, so the earnings quality needs checking before sizing a position.
moderate
High leverage
Debt/Equity is 3.03. Earnings are growing 64.3% YoY, but the balance sheet carries a heavy debt load that amplifies downside if earnings turn.
moderate
Earnings beat may be one-off
Q2 2026 EPS surprise was +123.0%, far above the +64.3% YoY earnings growth. A surprise this size is worth verifying as recurring rather than a single-period item.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts' mean price target of JPY 3881.43 sits 31.0% above the current share price of ¥2925.00.
Earnings per share came in at 229.07 against 102.71 expected, a 123.0% beat in the latest quarter.
A 24.3% net margin and 23.4% return on equity show the business turns sales into profit efficiently.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last 12 months was negative at -JPY 569.8B, so reported profits are not turning into cash.
Debt to equity of 3.03 means the balance sheet carries heavy borrowing relative to shareholder capital.
Revenue growth of 28.8% last year is far below the 197.6% yearly average over five years, so growth has slowed sharply.
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Valuation
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Where 8473.T's valuation models land
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