4 models fit Itron Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze57
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionItron Inc. Common Stock (ITRI)
Fair value (4 models)
$54.91
ACCE price target
$96.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST; previously $55.81 since 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: $87.65 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
59.6% above
-37.3% to fair value
ACCE score
45
out of 100
Analysts
82% buy
11 covering
P/E
14.1x
forward 12.5x
1-year return
-34.6%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Itron Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Itron makes the meters, communication modules and head-end software that utilities use to read and manage electricity, gas and water networks, and its grid edge intelligence line is sold to utilities as a way to push that data into distribution planning. The structural case rests on the utility replacement cycle: smart meter rollouts are long-dated, sticky contracts, and the installed base generates recurring software and services revenue. Revenue is shrinking, though, down 7.2%, so the near-term catalyst has to be margin recovery rather than top-line growth. At 13.9 times trailing earnings with a 13.5% operating margin and a 16.9% return on equity, the stock is priced for a business that has stopped growing, which is why a deeper look should start with whether that revenue decline is cyclical utility capex or lost share.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Revenue and earnings shrinking
Revenue is down 7.2% year on year and earnings are down 19.0%, with revenue down 4.1% quarter on quarter. Growth has turned negative over the most recent periods.
high
Heavy short interest
Short interest stands at 19.4% of shares, a large bearish positioning that signals many investors expect further declines.
moderate
Score deteriorating over 90 days
The ACCE score fell from 47 to 43 over 90 days, with momentum scoring just 23 of 100 and growth at 7.
moderate
Price above model fair value
The share price trades 59.6% above the model fair value of $54.91, so the stock is priced well ahead of the consensus models.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $381M, and the stock offers a 10.5% free cash flow yield.
Nine of eleven analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and the analyst mean price target sits 56.0% above the share price.
Itron beat its latest earnings estimate, reporting 1.59 per share against 1.30 expected, a 22.3% surprise.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 7.2% year over year, well below the 1.7% average annual growth of the past five years.
The share price is 59.6% above the model fair value of $54.91, and all four valuation models sit below the price.
Return on invested capital is 8.2%, and the stock trades at 11.9x forward earnings against a sector median of 27.3x.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 27, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where ITRI's valuation models land
Price
$87.65
Model fair value
$54.91
Model range
$24.85 to $75.71
Fair value $54.91
Price $87.65
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores