Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
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Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionHowmet Aerospace Inc. Common Stock (HWM)
Fair value (4 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$213
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $186 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
58
out of 100
Analysts
86% buy
22 covering
P/E
44.8x
forward 36.0x
1-year return
-7.1%
Dividend yield
0.23%
Howmet Aerospace Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Howmet manufactures jet engine components, airframe fasteners, and titanium castings for commercial and military aircraft. The company benefits from a structural tailwind in aerospace production rates, which remain below pre-pandemic peaks despite strong demand, and from its position as a sole-source or dual-source supplier on most platforms. Commercial aircraft deliveries are expected to grow 8-10% annually through 2030, while military spending on next-generation platforms like the F-35 and B-21 provides a second growth vector. At a forward PE of 34.7x against 24% revenue growth and 28.5% operating margins, the valuation reflects current production ramp assumptions; the stock offers upside if supply chain constraints ease faster than consensus expects or if military procurement accelerates. The company's 34.7% ROE and 36% gross margin demonstrate pricing power and operational leverage in a capital-light, high-barrier business.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Valuation disconnect from fundamentals
P/E 48.5 and EV/EBITDA 33.2 far exceed growth rates (24% revenue, 33% earnings YoY). ACCE fair value $213 vs price $225; model range suggests 28% downside risk.
high
ACCE score collapse
Score fell 13 points in 90 days (73 to 60). Valuation component (V:25) signals deterioration; quality and margin scores also weak (Q:83, M:45).
moderate
Insider selling without offsetting buying
Last 10 disclosures show $11.3M in sales and $0 in buys. Insiders reducing exposure while stock trades above fair value estimate.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 24.1% year over year with a 5-year average of 13.4%, showing sustained acceleration in a cyclical industry.
Net margin of 20.5% and ROE of 34.7% demonstrate pricing power and capital efficiency well above industrial peers.
Why it could disappoint
Forward P/E of 34.7x exceeds the sector median of 23.9x, pricing in years of flawless execution with little margin for error.
Free cash flow yield of only 1.3% on $1.2B annual generation suggests the stock offers minimal cash return at current valuation.
The reverse DCF implies perpetual cash flow growth of just 9.9%, below historical 13.4% average and the 5.2% risk-free rate.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where HWM's valuation models land
Price
$185.91
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $33.23
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores