2 models fit Transdigm Group Incorporated Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze44
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionTransdigm Group Incorporated Common Stock (TDG)
Fair value (2 models)
$766
ACCE price target
$1233
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $680 since 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $1100 since 19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $1105 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
44.2% above
-30.7% to fair value
ACCE score
50
out of 100
Analysts
52% buy
23 covering
P/E
34.6x
forward 23.1x
1-year return
-18.2%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Transdigm Group Incorporated Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
TransDigm manufactures and distributes engineered components and systems for commercial aircraft, military platforms, and industrial gas turbines, with a portfolio spanning landing gear, hydraulic systems, engine controls, and cabin interiors. The company's competitive moat rests on high switching costs (customers face certification delays and qualification costs to switch suppliers) and a fragmented supplier base where TransDigm often holds sole-source or preferred-vendor positions on legacy platforms. Revenue growth of 22.5% reflects a post-pandemic recovery in commercial aviation combined with elevated military spending, though much of this tailwind is cyclical rather than structural. The stock trades at 33.6x trailing earnings despite a forward multiple of 22.9x, suggesting the market is pricing in a normalization of margins or volumes that may not materialize if defense budgets remain elevated and commercial aircraft production continues to recover. At a 46% operating margin, TransDigm's cost structure and pricing power are exceptional for industrials, but the valuation leaves little room for execution missteps or a sharper-than-expected slowdown in either end market.