3 models fit HELLA GmbH & Co. KGaA and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze47
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionHELLA GmbH & Co. KGaA (HLE.DE)
Fair value (3 models)
€34.44
ACCE price target
€66.50
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: €69.50 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
101.8% above
-50.4% to fair value
ACCE score
52
out of 100
P/E
66.8x
forward 31.7x
1-year return
-14.8%
Dividend yield
0.31%
HELLA GmbH & Co. KGaA in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
HELLA is a German maker of automotive lighting, electronics and sensors, selling LED headlamps, radar and control units to European and global carmakers. Its moat is mostly embedded in its customer relationships: lighting modules are engineered into multi-year platforms, so once specified the supplier tends to keep the business for the life of a model. Revenue growth is modest at 2.6%, and the case rests on the mix shift toward electronics and driver-assistance content, where per-vehicle value is rising faster than unit volumes. At a 4.8% operating margin and a 3.8% ROE, the earnings base is thin, which is why the trailing P/E of 67 looks stretched against a forward P/E of 31.8; the market is pricing a substantial recovery in profitability. The deeper look should test whether margins can climb toward the gross margin of 22.6% as electronics scale, and what cyclical auto production risk does to that path.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Thin net margin
Net margin of +1.5% and operating margin of +4.8% leave little cushion, and revenue grew only +2.6% YoY. Earnings growth of +47.4% comes off a low base.
moderate
Very high trailing P/E
Trailing P/E of 67.7 against a forward P/E of 22.3 means the stock rests on a sharp expected earnings rebound. If that recovery falls short, the multiple has little support.
moderate
Heavy insider ownership
Insiders hold +81.6% of shares and institutions only +13.3%, so the free float is small and trading liquidity may be thin.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-05-31 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow of EUR 554M over the last twelve months shows the business still generates real cash despite thin profits.
Revenue has grown 4.3% a year on average over five years, and grew 2.6% in the latest year.
Debt is low at 0.10 times equity, and the share count has not grown, so shareholders are not being diluted.
Why it could disappoint
Net margin of 1.5% and return on equity of 3.8% are very weak returns on the money the business uses.
Return on invested capital of 2.0% suggests new investment earns little more than its cost.
The trailing P/E of 67.7x is far above the forward P/E of 22.3x, so the stock relies on earnings recovery, and analysts' mean target of EUR 65.00 sits below the current price.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 12, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where HLE.DE's valuation models land
Price
€69.50
Model fair value
€34.44
Model range
€21.74 to €47.70
Fair value €34.44
Price €69.50
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Wall Street consensus
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