Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a loss-making company: Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionAurora Innovation Inc. Class A Common Stock (AUR)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
$5.00
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $4.81 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
37
out of 100
Analysts
62% buy
13 covering
1-year return
-5.1%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Aurora Innovation Inc. Class A Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
Aurora Innovation builds the Aurora Driver, a self-driving software stack that it is commercialising through long-haul trucking on Texas highways and through partnerships with truck makers and fleet operators. The advantage is the depth of its sensing and software integration, which has allowed it to run driverless freight on public roads ahead of most rivals, though it still generates negligible revenue against deep losses, with a gross margin of roughly -15,980%. Revenue growth of 100% is off a tiny base and is not yet a meaningful signal of commercial traction. The near-term catalyst to watch is the expansion of driverless operations beyond Texas and the conversion of pilot routes into paid, recurring freight contracts. At a $10.8B market capitalisation with an ROE of -45.6% and no earnings to anchor a valuation, the name is an option on execution rather than a cash-flow story, and it warrants a deeper look only if the portfolio can carry that binary risk.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
severe
Deeply negative margins
Gross margin is -15980% and operating margin -13300%, so the company loses far more than it earns on revenue. Free cash flow is $-612,000,000, with no earnings to offset it.
high
Heavy short interest
Short interest stands at 19.0% of float, a large bearish bet against a company that is still burning cash and has no profit to point to.
moderate
Long-term revenue shrinkage
Five-year revenue CAGR is -26.9%. The +100.0% year-on-year rise comes off a small base and does not yet show a durable trend.
moderate
Weak quality and momentum scores
ACCE quality score is 31 and momentum is 34, with an overall score of 35/100. Value sits at 10, so the stock screens expensive on most measures.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-18 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts remain constructive, with 62% (8 of 13) rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
The average analyst price target of $12.13 sits far above the current $4.81 share price.
Revenue more than doubled year over year, with growth of 100.0% in the latest reported period.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last 12 months was negative at -$612M, so the business is consuming cash rather than generating it.
Shareholders are being diluted, as the diluted share count rose 13.7% in the last fiscal year.
The latest earnings missed expectations, with EPS of -0.14 against -0.12 expected, a surprise of -16.7%.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 28, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where AUR's valuation models land
Price
$4.81
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $12.13
Model
Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores