ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: €128 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
57.8% below
+136.9% to fair value
ACCE score
50
out of 100
P/E
377.6x
forward -368.0x
1-year return
+8.6%
Dividend yield
2.24%
Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Hapag-Lloyd runs one of the largest container liner networks in the world, carrying containers on ocean routes and selling the surrounding logistics, inland haulage and terminal services that move cargo to the door. Its moat rests on scale: a large fleet and a broad service network are costly to replicate, and the company has been tightening its reliance on long-term charters and a more disciplined capacity plan since the 2021-22 freight spike. Reported revenue grew 8.4%, but operating margin of 2.9% and a trailing P/E of 384 mean earnings are currently depressed, so the thesis hinges on freight rates and cost normalisation rather than on a visible growth driver. The stock is worth a deeper look if you believe the cycle is turning and want exposure to container shipping, but the valuation leaves little room for error and the data here gives no forward P/E to anchor expectations. Check the company's latest rate and volume guidance before spending further time on it.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapsing despite revenue growth
Revenue grew 8.4% year on year, but earnings fell 73.5%. Net margin is just 0.3% and operating margin 2.9%, so most of the top-line growth is not reaching shareholders.
moderate
Trailing P/E distorted by low earnings
Trailing P/E sits at 390.0 against a forward P/E of 18.9. The gap reflects depressed recent earnings, so valuation rests heavily on the forward estimate holding up.
moderate
Heavy insider ownership limits float
Insiders hold 73.6% of shares and institutions 22.7%. A thin free float can amplify price moves in either direction and reduce liquidity for exits.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 8.4% year over year and has averaged 7.8% a year over five years, showing sustained top-line expansion.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached EUR 985M, and the stock offers a 4.2% free cash flow yield.
Debt to equity sits at 0.36 and the share count has not been diluted, leaving the balance sheet fairly conservative.
Why it could disappoint
Net margin is just 0.3% and return on equity is 0.4%, so very little of each euro of sales reaches shareholders.
Latest quarterly earnings per share missed expectations by 46.6%, coming in at 0.39 against 0.73 forecast.
Analysts' mean price target of EUR 111.45 sits 16.2% below the current price, and the trailing P/E of 390.0x looks stretched.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 12, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where HLAG.DE's valuation models land
Price
€128.40
Model fair value
€304
Model range
€109 to €467
Fair value €304
Price €128
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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Analysts
Wall Street consensus
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Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
+Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
+ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
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