Gränges AB (publ) (GRNG.ST) fair value

ACCE thesis

Gränges makes rolled aluminium products, mainly sheet and foil for heat exchangers in cars and the trucks and buses that carry them, plus battery-related and building material lines, with much of its output going to customers in Europe and Asia. The structural case rests on its position as a specialist supplier in automotive thermal management, where the switch to electrified vehicles raises aluminium content per car and the company's qualification with OEMs makes it hard to displace. The near-term driver is volume recovery and the ramp of its Finspång and Chinese operations, which have pushed revenue growth to 38.8% on the latest data, though with a 6.0% operating margin and 25.9% gross margin, the spread between the two shows how much of that top-line gain is passed through metal costs and how little is kept. What makes it worth a closer look now is the valuation against that growth: a 15.4x trailing and 14.2x forward P/E sits modestly above where a cyclical processor would normally trade, yet an 11.6% ROE is not yet the return profile that would justify a premium, so the question for the deeper work is whether margins can widen on the higher volumes or whether the growth is mostly metal price pass-through. The company is not in any major index, which may matter for liquidity and for how much research coverage it attracts.