National Aluminium Company Limited (NATIONALUM.NS) fair value

ACCE thesis

National Aluminium Company (Nalco) is an integrated producer running bauxite mining, alumina refining and aluminium smelting in Odisha, with downstream products including ingots, billets and rolled sheet. Its cost position rests on owning the bauxite and power inputs at its Damanjodi and Angul complexes, which is why it earns a 47.6% operating margin in a commodity business. The near-term driver is volume and price: revenue grew 39.3% over the latest reported period, but the stock trades on a trailing P/E of 8.5 and forward P/E of 8.0, which implies the market is pricing in a sharp reversal of that growth rather than sustained earnings. That gap between recent growth and a single-digit multiple is the reason to look closer, though the test is whether the margin and growth hold through an aluminium price cycle, and the 39.3% figure needs to be checked against the base effect and any one-time items before it is taken at face value.