Aluar Aluminio Argentino (ALUA.BA) fair value

ACCE thesis

Aluar Aluminio Argentino is Argentina's only integrated aluminium producer, running a smelter at Puerto Madryn that turns alumina into primary aluminium ingots and billets, plus rolled products and extrusions sold mainly into packaging, construction and industrial customers. The structural edge is the integration itself: a domestic, energy-intensive smelter with captive supply and few local competitors, which insulates margins better than an importer's model would in a volatile peso market. Revenue growth of 72.7% reflects the inflation-driven repricing of nominal sales in Argentina rather than volume alone, so the number needs reading alongside the 12.2% ROE and the 22.6% operating margin, which show the business is converting that top-line into profit. The stock trades at 8.8 times trailing earnings but 31.5 times forward, a gap that signals the market expects current earnings to be flattered by peso-denominated figures and that forward estimates are thin or under pressure, which is the first thing to test. Score 73/100 and no index membership mean it sits outside the usual screens, so a deeper look should start with the earnings bridge in inflation-adjusted terms and the energy cost outlook at Puerto Madryn.