Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
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Valued as a loss-making company: Sales comps and Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionGrocery Outlet Holding Corp. Common Stock (GO)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$11.00
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $13.30 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus and Sales comps.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
48
out of 100
Analysts
7% buy
14 covering
1-year return
-14.1%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Grocery Outlet runs a discount grocery chain that buys closeout, overstock and seasonal merchandise, selling mostly name-brand packaged food, produce and general merchandise in roughly 500 small-format stores, with an opportunistic buying model that depends on vendor relationships rather than scale purchasing. The moat is thinner than the concept suggests: revenue grew just 1.1%, operating margin is 1.8% on a 30% gross margin, and ROE sits at -38.1%, so the economics of the model are not yet proving out. The near-term question is whether store productivity and margin repair can lift earnings, which a forward P/E of 14.9 implies the market is only partly pricing. Why look now: the stock trades on a forward multiple that assumes a recovery from a thin margin base, and with a composite score of 46/100 and no index membership, the work is to test whether that recovery is credible. If the margin bridge does not show up in the next few reporting periods, the discount is not a discount.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Heavy short interest
Short interest stands at 32.2% of float, a very large bearish position that signals strong conviction against the stock and can amplify volatility either way.
high
Thin operating margin and leverage
Operating margin is only 1.8% and debt/equity is 1.84, with free cash flow of $24M, leaving little cushion if sales growth of 1.1% stalls further.
moderate
Price above ACCE target
The stock trades at $13.30, 20.9% above the ACCE price target of $11.00, so the current price already prices in more than our target assumes.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 23, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months came in at $24M, so the business still generates cash despite losses.
Grocery Outlet beat earnings expectations last quarter, reporting 0.17 per share against 0.09 expected.
The share count fell 1.6% last fiscal year, so each remaining share holds a slightly larger slice of the company.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue grew just 1.1% year over year, far below the 8.4% yearly average over five years.
The company lost money at the net level, with a net margin of -8.0% and return on equity of -38.1%.
Debt is high at 1.84 times equity, and the stock trades 20.9% above the ACCE price target of $11.00.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where GO's valuation models land
Price
$13.30
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $22.86
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Analyst consensus
Sales comps
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Quality
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