Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
34.9% below
+53.6% to fair value
ACCE score
34
out of 100
Analysts
20% buy
20 covering
1-year return
-28.2%
Dividend yield
6.94%
General Mills Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
General Mills makes branded packaged foods, including Cheerios, Nature Valley, Pillsbury, Häagen-Dazs and Yoplait, sold mostly through North American grocery and mass retail. Its moat rests on a portfolio of category-leading brands with high shelf presence and a large distribution network, though that advantage is being tested by private-label competition and by volume softness across center-store categories. Revenue is shrinking (down 2.8%) and ROE is negative at -10.5%, so the core question is whether margins can hold while sales stabilize. The stock trades at roughly 10x forward earnings with a 15.2% operating margin, a valuation that prices in a lot of pessimism, but the 34/100 score and lack of index membership signal that the screen sees more deterioration than value. This merits a deeper look focused on volume trends, pricing power and balance sheet flexibility, not a conclusion on valuation alone.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse and negative profitability
EPS down 66.7% YoY; net margin -4.9% and ROE -10.5% signal the company is unprofitable on a net basis despite positive operating margin.
high
Revenue decline across all horizons
Revenue down 2.8% YoY, 4.8% QoQ, and 2.9% over 5 years. Packaged foods facing secular headwinds with no growth inflection visible.
high
Elevated leverage with weak earnings
Debt/Equity 1.82 combined with negative net income creates refinancing and covenant risk. FCF of $1.3B provides some cushion but earnings deterioration is concerning.
moderate
High short interest and insider selling
Short interest at 10.9% with $0.2M insider sales in last 10 disclosures and no buys. Suggests skepticism among both informed and market participants.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-08-31 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow yield of 7.5% and dividend yield of 7.5% offer compelling income to shareholders today.
Forward P/E of 10.2x is cheap relative to analyst mean price target implying 14.6% upside.
Share buybacks reduced diluted share count by 1.8% last year while generating $1.3B free cash flow.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue declined 2.8% year over year and 2.9% on a 5-year average, showing persistent contraction.
Negative 4.9% net margin and negative 10.5% ROE indicate the business is destroying shareholder value.
Debt to equity of 1.82 limits financial flexibility while only 20% of analysts rate the stock Buy.
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Next results
Dec 16, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where GIS's valuation models land
Price
$34.39
Model fair value
$52.82
Model range
$40.13 to $57.52
Fair value $52.82
Price $34.39
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
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