Market cap MXN 269.6BNext earnings 2026-10-22Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 22% above our fair value
Price
MXN 62.75
Model fair valueConfidence: good
MXN 51.49
Model range
MXN 22.96 to MXN 106
Fair value MXN 51.49
Price MXN 62.75
5 models fit Grupo Bimbo and they disagree: 1 of 5 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)Silver68
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionGrupo Bimbo (BIMBOA.MX)
Fair value (5 models)
MXN 51.49
ACCE price target
MXN 60.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 23 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: MXN 62.75 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 23:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, Dividend discount, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
21.9% above
-17.9% to fair value
ACCE score
56
out of 100
P/E
22.9x
forward 18.8x
1-year return
-0.1%
Dividend yield
1.79%
Grupo Bimbo in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Grupo Bimbo makes packaged bread and baked goods under brands such as Bimbo, Marinela, Sabritas-adjacent snacks, and Thomas's, sold through a direct-store-delivery network that puts product on shelves across Mexico and the US. Its moat rests on route density and fresh-goods logistics that smaller bakers struggle to replicate at scale, and that distribution footprint is hard to dislodge once retailers depend on it. At 21.4x trailing and 17.5x forward earnings, the stock prices in a modest recovery in profit growth rather than a sharp rebound, which makes the forward multiple the number to test. Our data set has no revenue growth, margin, or ROE figures for the company, so the operating case has to be built from the filings before any view on valuation is formed. The MXN 251.8B market cap and absence from index memberships suggest thin coverage relative to its size, which is the reason to look closer.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Revenue shrinking year on year
Revenue fell 2.2% year on year, which sits awkwardly against a 5y revenue CAGR of +5.2%. The top line has turned down after years of growth.
moderate
Leverage elevated for the sector
Debt/Equity of 1.29 is high for a packaged foods business, leaving less room if sales keep falling. Free cash flow of $24.9B gives some cushion, but it is a constraint.
moderate
Thin net margin
Net margin is +2.8% against an operating margin of +8.4%, so interest and other costs absorb most of the operating profit. Earnings growth of +4.6% is modest for a company whose sales are contracting.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 17, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached MXN 24.9B, showing the business still turns sales into real cash.
Revenue has grown 5.2% a year on average over five years, a longer record than the latest dip suggests.
On forward earnings the stock trades at 14.9x, cheaper than its 21.5x trailing multiple implies for a recovery.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 2.2% over the past year, reversing the five-year growth record.
Debt to equity of 1.29 leaves the balance sheet heavily borrowed, limiting room for buybacks and dividend growth.
Earnings per share missed expectations by 9.3% in the latest quarter, with a net margin of only 2.8%.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where BIMBOA.MX's valuation models land
Price
MXN 62.75
Model fair value
MXN 51.49
Model range
MXN 22.96 to MXN 106
Fair value MXN 51.49
Price MXN 62.75
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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