4 models fit Hormel Foods Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Bronze59
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionHormel Foods Corporation Common Stock (HRL)
Fair value (4 models)
$21.33
ACCE price target
$22.10
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $23.77 since 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $21.00 since 27 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $21.06 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
1.3% below
+1.3% to fair value
ACCE score
39
out of 100
Analysts
30% buy
10 covering
P/E
32.9x
forward 12.9x
1-year return
-11.4%
Dividend yield
5.71%
Hormel Foods Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Hormel makes Spam, Skippy peanut butter, Hormel Natural Choice deli meats, Jennie-O turkey, and Planters nuts, and sells them mostly through US grocery and foodservice channels. Its moat rests on brand recognition and a large, vertically integrated hog and turkey supply chain, which tends to hold shelf space through input-cost cycles. The near-term catalyst is margin recovery as protein prices normalize and the company works through cost actions and the Planters restructuring, though that has not yet shown up in the top line. Revenue is down 2.4% and ROE is just 4.3%, so the earnings base is thin. The forward P/E of 12.3 against a trailing 31.0 says the market expects a sharp rebound in earnings, and that expectation is the thing to test before anything else.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse
Earnings down 67.2% YoY while revenue fell 2.4%. Net margin of 2.8% suggests severe operational stress or one-time charges.
high
Valuation disconnect
P/E of 31.0 on trailing basis versus forward P/E of 12.3 signals market expects sharp earnings recovery. Current price $19.19 sits below ACCE fair value $21.00 but above downside $16.00.
moderate
Weak quality score
ACCE Quality score 47/100 reflects operational concerns. ROE of 4.3% is well below cost of capital for packaged foods peers.
moderate
Negative revenue momentum
Revenue CAGR negative 1.0% over 5 years; YoY down 2.4%. Secular headwinds in packaged foods not yet reversed.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-07-31 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
No sourced point in favour passed our checks for this note.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue declined 2.4% year over year and 1.0% on average annually over five years.
Return on equity of 4.3% and return on invested capital of 3.6% lag cost of capital.
Net margin of 2.8% leaves little room for input cost swings to protect dividend at 6.0%.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Dec 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where HRL's valuation models land
Price
$21.06
Model fair value
$21.33
Model range
$14.71 to $27.71
Fair value $21.33
Price $21.06
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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