2 models fit Diamondback Energy Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionDiamondback Energy Inc. Common Stock (FANG)
Fair value (2 models)
$91.93
ACCE price target
$210
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST; previously $94.09 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 20 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: $206 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: EV/EBITDA comparison and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
123.8% above
-55.3% to fair value
ACCE score
80
out of 100
Analysts
84% buy
32 covering
P/E
38.3x
forward 10.0x
1-year return
+39.8%
Dividend yield
2.12%
Diamondback Energy Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
Diamondback Energy operates oil and gas production assets in the Permian Basin, with a focus on low-cost crude extraction and midstream infrastructure that captures takeaway value. The company benefits from structural advantages in the Permian: its acreage sits in the core of the Delaware sub-basin where drilling costs and decline rates are among the lowest in North America, and its owned or operated midstream assets reduce exposure to third-party transportation bottlenecks. Production growth is being driven by drilling activity on high-return wells, with the company targeting mid-single-digit annual volume growth while maintaining capital discipline. The forward PE of 10.2x is compelling relative to the 48.5% operating margin and the cash generation profile typical of Permian operators at current commodity prices. At a 54 billion dollar market cap, Diamondback trades at a meaningful discount to peers with comparable reserve quality, likely reflecting investor skepticism about energy sector durability rather than company-specific weakness.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Massive insider selling
Last 10 disclosures show $1,891M in insider sales vs $0 in buys. Concentrated selling by company leadership warrants scrutiny on valuation sustainability.
moderate
Valuation multiple disconnect
P/E 36.6 vs forward P/E 10.2 implies steep earnings decline expected. Current price $192.13 sits near model midpoint; upside limited if guidance disappoints.
moderate
Score surge on cyclical strength
ACCE score jumped 24 points in 90 days (57 to 81) driven by +179.5% earnings growth. Energy cyclicality and commodity price dependency create reversion risk if oil weakens.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Strong free cash flow generation of $5.0B supports a 9.3% yield, providing downside protection and capital return capacity.
Revenue grew 52.5% year over year with a 5-year average of 15.9%, demonstrating both near-term momentum and sustained expansion.
Why it could disappoint
Consensus fair value is $95.67, implying the stock is overvalued by 50.2% relative to fundamental models.
Share count diluted by 35.4% last fiscal year, eroding per-share value despite strong absolute revenue and cash flow growth.
Forward P/E of 10.2x versus sector median of 16.0x suggests the market prices in significant earnings deterioration ahead.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 2, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where FANG's valuation models land
Price
$205.75
Model fair value
$91.93
Model range
$53.61 to $130
Fair value $91.93
Price $206
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores