4 models fit Devon Energy Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze52
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionDevon Energy Corporation Common Stock (DVN)
Fair value (4 models)
$31.82
ACCE price target
$50.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 24 Oct 2026, 16:06 CEST; previously $39.94 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 20 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 24 Oct 2026, 16:06 CEST.
Price used: $51.39 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
61.5% above
-38.1% to fair value
ACCE score
86
out of 100
Analysts
93% buy
29 covering
P/E
10.7x
forward 9.3x
1-year return
+53.7%
Dividend yield
2.09%
Devon Energy Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
Devon Energy produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids from assets in the Permian Basin, Eagle Ford, and the Powder River Basin. The company benefits from long-cycle asset bases with low decline rates and operates in a structural supply deficit where global production capacity struggles to keep pace with demand. Near-term cash generation is supported by elevated commodity prices and the completion of its acquisition of Grayson Creek, which adds 65,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day of production. The forward PE of 9.3x reflects the market's assumption that current prices will normalize, yet Devon trades at a significant discount to peers despite a 41% operating margin and a 50% gross margin. At current strip prices, the company generates sufficient free cash flow to fund both its dividend and meaningful share buybacks, creating a self-reinforcing capital return cycle that reduces share count while commodity prices remain elevated.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Extreme recent growth volatility
QoQ revenue growth of 94.8% follows YoY 64.2%, suggesting cyclical commodity pricing rather than sustainable operational momentum. Reversion risk is material.
moderate
Quality score lags valuation strength
ACCE Quality score of 74 is notably weaker than Growth (100) and Value (92), indicating earnings quality or cash conversion concerns warrant scrutiny against the low 9.3x forward P/E.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-11 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
The company generated 2.8 billion dollars in free cash flow over the last twelve months with a 5.3% yield.
Analysts rate 90% of Devon as Buy or Strong Buy, with a mean price target of 60.96 dollars, implying 26.3% upside.
Why it could disappoint
Consensus fair value of 40.34 dollars sits 16.4% below the current share price of 48.26 dollars.
The reverse DCF implies only 6.2% annual cash flow growth over five years, well below recent 64.2% revenue growth.
Devon's 8.9% return on invested capital trails the 5.2% risk-free rate, destroying shareholder value at the margin.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where DVN's valuation models land
Price
$51.39
Model fair value
$31.82
Model range
$18.74 to $41.00
Fair value $31.82
Price $51.39
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores