2 models fit e.l.f. Beauty Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze54
Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinione.l.f. Beauty Inc. Common Stock (ELF)
Fair value (2 models)
$56.24
ACCE price target
$99.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously $55.43 since 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: $114 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
103.1% above
-50.8% to fair value
ACCE score
65
out of 100
Analysts
67% buy
18 covering
P/E
116.6x
forward 29.1x
1-year return
-8.6%
Dividend yield
0.00%
e.l.f. Beauty Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
e.l.f. Beauty sells affordable cosmetics and skincare under its eponymous brand and Naturally Flawless, most of it through mass retailers and its own e.l.f. Cosmetics channel, and it has grown revenue 35.5% over the latest reported period while carrying a 71.6% gross margin, a combination few mass-market beauty peers manage. The moat is brand velocity at low price points, with the company's cult-following products converting quickly into repeat purchase, though that edge rests on marketing spend and trend exposure rather than anything structural. The near-term story is margin: operating margin of 14.3% leaves room for expansion as the business scales, and the forward P/E of 35.2 compares with a trailing 118.5, so the market is paying for earnings growth that has yet to fully appear in reported profit. Against that, ROE of 6.0% is thin for a business this profitable at the gross line, which points to the capital and working needs of rapid growth absorbing returns for now. The name is worth a deeper look to test whether the margin trajectory holds through the next few quarters and whether revenue growth stays durable once the trend-driven product cycles normalize. It carries a 63/100 score and no index membership, which is consistent with a stock still being re-rated as its profitability catches up with its top line.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Valuation far above model
Price trades 103.1% above the model fair value of $56.24 and 15.4% above the ACCE price target of $99.00. Forward P/E is 35.2 and EV/EBITDA is 29.4, so the premium rests on continued growth.
moderate
Insider selling, no buys
Last 10 disclosed insider transactions total $9.16M in sales and $0.00M in buys. Insiders own only 2.9% of shares.
moderate
Elevated short interest
Short interest is 8.2% of shares outstanding, which means a meaningful group of investors is betting on a decline.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 35.5% year over year, and the five-year average growth rate is 38.8% per year.
Analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy at 67%, and their mean price target sits near the current price.
Latest earnings per share beat expectations by 184.6%, with earnings of 1.48 against 0.52 expected.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades 103.1% above the model fair value of $56.24, and only 2 of 3 valuation models feed that figure.
A trailing P/E of 115.9x against a forward P/E of 35.2x, versus a sector median forward P/E of 18.3x, leaves little margin for error.
Net margin is only 3.4% and return on invested capital is 1.1%, so the business earns thin profits on the capital it uses.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where ELF's valuation models land
Price
$114.24
Model fair value
$56.24
Model range
$34.39 to $67.16
Fair value $56.24
Price $114
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
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