Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
15.1% below
+17.8% to fair value
ACCE score
52
out of 100
P/E
14.4x
forward 13.4x
1-year return
+7.0%
Dividend yield
5.89%
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Kimberly-Clark de Mexico makes Kleenex tissues, Huggies diapers, Kotex feminine care and Scott paper products, sold mainly across Mexico and Latin America. Its moat rests on brand strength and distribution in staples that households buy regardless of the cycle, with a 40.8% gross margin and a 21.9% operating margin showing the pricing power is real. Revenue is slipping slightly, down 0.4% on the last reported figures, so the case depends on margins holding rather than volumes growing. At 14.3 times trailing earnings and 13.8 times forward, the stock is priced for a defensive compounder with no growth assumed, and a return on equity of 147.5% reflects a balance sheet that has been run hard, which deserves a look at leverage and payout before anything else. The score of 52 out of 100 and absence from any major index argue for a deeper look only if the margin trend and free cash flow conversion check out.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Revenue shrinking slightly
Revenue fell 0.4% year on year and earnings were flat (0.0%), so the top line is not growing against a 5-year revenue CAGR of 3.5%.
moderate
Leverage elevated
Debt to equity of 2.83 is high, and the thin equity base inflates the ROE of 147.5%, which overstates underlying profitability.
moderate
Price trades below ACCE target
The price of MXN 37.86 sits 10.9% below the ACCE price target of MXN 42.50 and 15.1% below the model fair value of MXN 44.59, which reflects the market doubting the flat growth outlook.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 23, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached MXN 8.0B, and the stock yields 6.9% on that cash flow.
Return on invested capital of 22.4% shows the business earns strong returns on the capital it puts to work.
The stock trades 15.1% below the model fair value of MXN 44.59, and the forward P/E of 13.8x sits well under the sector median of 18.5x.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 0.4% year over year, breaking a five-year average growth rate of 3.5% per year.
Debt equals 2.83 times equity, a heavy load that leaves less room if earnings weaken.
The latest quarter's earnings per share missed expectations, coming in at 0.56 against 0.59 expected, a 5.1% shortfall.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Jan 19, 2027
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where KIMBERA.MX's valuation models land
Price
MXN 37.86
Model fair value
MXN 44.59
Model range
MXN 38.82 to MXN 48.39
Fair value MXN 44.59
Price MXN 37.86
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
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Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
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