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EAT

Brinker International Inc. Common Stock (EAT) fair value

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants · NYSE · United States
$182.70-3.90%
Market cap $7.7BNext earnings 2026-10-28Updated Oct 20, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Close to our fair value
Price
$182.70
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$175
Model range
$130 to $239
Fair value $175
Price $183
3 models fit Brinker International Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Silver71
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionBrinker International Inc. Common Stock (EAT)
Fair value (3 models)
$175
ACCE price target
$188
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 20 Oct 2026, 15:04 CEST; previously $195 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $183 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
4.5% above
-4.3% to fair value
ACCE score
68
out of 100
Analysts
87% buy
23 covering
P/E
16.8x
forward 12.6x
1-year return
+44.6%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Brinker International Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Brinker runs the Chili's Grill & Bar and Maggiano's Little Italy chains, with Chili's carrying most of the revenue and its value-priced 3 for Me menu and Triple Dipper appetizer doing much of the traffic work. The moat here is operational rather than structural: a company-operated Chili's base that has been pushing through a turnaround in comparable-store traffic, with the margin profile to show for it at an 11.3% operating margin. Revenue growth of 5.1% and a forward P/E of 16.2 against a trailing 18.6 suggest the market is still pricing in some earnings growth without paying for a full recovery. The 119.6% ROE is inflated by a small equity base after years of buybacks and is worth stress-testing rather than taking at face value. The name is not in any index, which keeps it off the passive-flow radar and makes the debt, lease and same-store sales trajectory the things to check before going further.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Leverage stretched
    Debt/Equity of 3.96 with a $558M FCF cushion. Equity is thin relative to debt, so a sales slowdown would hit the balance sheet hard.
  • moderate
    Short interest elevated
    Short interest sits at 17.5% of float. Heavy short positioning can amplify volatility in either direction around earnings.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 16, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue grew 11.7% a year on average over five years, and free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $558M.
  • The company reduced its diluted share count by 2.8% last year, which lifts earnings per share for remaining holders.
Why it could disappoint
  • Debt is 3.96 times equity, a heavy load that leaves less room to absorb a downturn in casual dining traffic.
  • Revenue grew just 5.1% last year, well below the 11.7% five-year average, so recent momentum has slowed.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Oct 28, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where EAT's valuation models land
Price
$182.70
Model fair value
$175
Model range
$130 to $239
Fair value $175
Price $183
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish87% buy · 23 covering analysts
● Strong buy 17● Buy 3● Hold 2● Sell 0● Strong sell 1
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
-10.5%
1 month
-13.3%
3 months
-2.3%
6 months
+31.8%
YTD
+27.3%
1 year
+44.6%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
20 Oct 2026, 15:04 CESTFair value$175$195$198
20 Oct 2026, 15:04 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication$198
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$195$172$194
10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$188first publication$190
7 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$172$180$194
4 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$180$177$202
30 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$177$179$202
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$179$181$207
25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$181$179$211
21 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$179$185$197

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth56Value70Quality56Momentum91Total68
Valuation
Trailing P/E
16.8x
Forward P/E
12.6x
PEG
0.59
P/B
19.84x
EV / Revenue
1.8x
Book value/sh
$10.51
Enterprise value
$10.5B
Profitability
ROE
119.6%
FCF yield
7.08%
ROIC
18.2%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
3.96
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
1.26

Price

+43.5% · 1Y

Ask anything about EAT

Answered from Brinker International Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 83% of peers
low 10.7x16.8xhigh 97.2x
ROEbetter than 100% of peers
low 0%120%high 120%
Div yieldbetter than 33% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 8.3%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
EAT Brinker International Inc. Common Stock$182.70$1754% above16.8x119.6%5668
BROS Dutch Bros Inc. Class A Common Stock$41.75$16163% above57.6x14.6%5148
2702.T McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan), Ltd.¥8250.00--30.1x13.2%6445
3563.T Food & Life Companies Ltd.¥5778.00--42.2x30.0%6872
6862.HK Haidilao International Holding Ltd.HK$9.12HK$1434% below10.7x41.9%7056
CAVA CAVA Group Inc. Common Stock$54.68--97.2x8.3%5246
DPZ Domino's Pizza Inc Common Stock$317.70$19662% above17.3x0.0%4748

Sector report card

Where EAT ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • PR Newswire•Oct 14, 2026
    BRINKER INTERNATIONAL, INC. TO HOST FIRST QUARTER FISCAL 2027 EARNINGS CALL
  • PR Newswire•Oct 13, 2026
    Chili's® Builds on its Big Crispy® Chicken Sandwich Momentum with the New Chicken Parm Big Crispy Available First Exclusively in Florence, Rome and Venice
  • PR Newswire•Sep 17, 2026
    BRINKER INTERNATIONAL OUTLINES GROWTH STRATEGY AND LONG-TERM TARGETS AT INVESTOR DAY
5 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
September 2026
Sep 25
ProxyProxy statementPeriod 2026-11-05
View on SEC →
Sep 17
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-09-17
View on SEC →
Sep 10
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-09
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR