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CAVA

CAVA Group Inc. Common Stock (CAVA) fair value

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants · NYSE · United States
$53.48-2.19%
Market cap $6.2BNext earnings 2026-11-04Updated Oct 20, 2026
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Our verdict
Trades 242% above our fair value
Price
$53.48
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$15.64
Only one of our models could value this stock with confidence, so use it as a guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionCAVA Group Inc. Common Stock (CAVA)
Fair value (4 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$46.00
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $53.48 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
46
out of 100
Analysts
68% buy
28 covering
P/E
97.2x
forward 71.9x
1-year return
-16.7%
Dividend yield
0.00%

CAVA Group Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

CAVA runs a fast-casual Mediterranean chain built around its build-your-own bowls, pita and signature dips, with a restaurant base that has grown fast enough to keep revenue compounding at 31.3% year over year. The core advantage is a tight unit model: a 37.7% gross margin on food and labor says the format has pricing power and a repeatable cost structure, and that is what makes new-store growth worth paying for. The near-term question is whether that unit growth holds while operating margin, at 7.6%, has room to widen as the newer restaurants mature. The stock trades at 95.5 times trailing earnings and 70.4 times forward, a premium that assumes margin expansion and sustained comps, while ROE of 8.3% shows the equity base has not yet been turned into high returns. The name clears a screen on growth and unit economics but scores 44 of 100 and sits in no index, so the case for a deeper look rests on whether margin progress arrives on schedule.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Valuation stretched vs target
    Shares trade at $53.48, 16.3% above the ACCE price target of $46.00. P/E is 103.8 and EV/EBITDA is 34.3, leaving little room for a growth miss.
  • moderate
    Heavy short interest
    Short interest is 14.4% of float, which can amplify volatility on any earnings disappointment.
  • moderate
    Thin free cash flow
    Free cash flow is only $26M against a $6.4B market cap, and operating margin is 7.6%. Earnings growth of 19.8% is not yet matched by cash generation.
  • moderate
    Insider selling without buys
    Insiders disclosed $4.06M in sales and $0.00M in purchases over the last 10 disclosures.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-21 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue grew 31.3% year over year, far faster than the 4.8% per year the company averaged over five years.
  • Analysts rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy stand at 68%, with 19 of 28 covering analysts on that side.
  • Analysts' mean price target of $83.38 sits 51.6% above the $53.48 share price.
Why it could disappoint
  • The stock trades at 70.4x forward earnings, against a sector median of 18.0x, leaving little room for error.
  • Free cash flow yield is only 0.4%, and the trailing P/E stands at 103.8x.
  • Return on invested capital of 4.2% is well below the 5.1% risk-free rate used in the valuation model.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where CAVA's valuation models land
Price
$53.48
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$15.64
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish68% buy · 28 covering analysts
● Strong buy 16● Buy 3● Hold 8● Sell 0● Strong sell 1
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
-6.6%
1 month
+0.7%
3 months
-13.8%
6 months
-44.1%
YTD
-8.9%
1 year
-16.7%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$46.00first publication$54.31
7 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$10.78$10.90$54.10
30 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$10.90$10.74$51.58
27 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$10.74$11.00$51.58
22 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$11.00$11.27$51.64
19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$11.27$10.90$51.21
16 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$10.90$11.06$54.89
14 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$11.06$10.79$55.88
11 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$10.79$11.21$56.51
6 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$11.21$10.79$60.76

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth92Value16Quality52Momentum25Total46
Valuation
Trailing P/E
97.2x
Forward P/E
71.9x
PEG
5.24
P/B
7.37x
EV / Revenue
4.6x
Book value/sh
$7.20
Enterprise value
$6.3B
Profitability
ROE
8.3%
FCF yield
0.41%
ROIC
4.2%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.60
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
1.81

Price

-15.9% · 1Y

Ask anything about CAVA

Answered from CAVA Group Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 0% of peers
low 10.7x97.2xhigh 97.2x
ROEbetter than 0% of peers
low 8%8%high 120%
Div yieldbetter than 33% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 7.3%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
CAVA CAVA Group Inc. Common Stock$53.48--97.2x8.3%5246
6862.HK Haidilao International Holding Ltd.HK$9.12HK$1434% below10.7x41.9%7056
2702.T McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan), Ltd.¥8250.00--30.1x13.2%6445
CAKE Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (The) Common Stock$112.44--29.4x38.8%5764
BROS Dutch Bros Inc. Class A Common Stock$41.75$16163% above58.0x14.6%5148
3197.T Skylark Holdings Co., Ltd.¥3520.00--42.0x10.2%6066
EAT Brinker International Inc. Common Stock$190.11$1759% above16.8x119.6%5668

Sector report card

Where CAVA ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Oct 14, 2026
    CAVA to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results on November 4th, 2026
  • Business Wire•Oct 14, 2026
    CAVA’s New Greek Goddess Menu Is Not a Myth, Just Mediterranean
  • Business Wire•Sep 30, 2026
    CAVA Names John Ludeke Chief Marketing Officer
3 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
September 2026
Sep 18
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-09-17
View on SEC →
Sep 16
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-15
View on SEC →
Sep 11
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-09
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR