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DNUT

Krispy Kreme Inc. Common Stock (DNUT) fair value

Consumer Defensive · Grocery Stores · NASDAQ · United States
$2.82-4.41%
Market cap $489MNext earnings 2026-11-05Updated Oct 17, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 31% below our fair value
Price
$2.82
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $4.08
Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a loss-making company: Analyst consensus.
ACCE opinionKrispy Kreme Inc. Common Stock (DNUT)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$2.69
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $2.82 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
19
out of 100
Analysts
29% buy
7 covering
1-year return
-31.4%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Krispy Kreme Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Krispy Kreme makes and sells doughnuts through its own shops, drive-thrus, grocery and retail channels, and wholesale accounts, with its Hot Light signage and fresh-doughnut production as the core of the brand. The thesis rests on little: revenue fell 12.8% and operating margin is slightly negative at -2.0%, with ROE at -13.7%, so the business is currently shrinking and not earning its keep. The 24.9% gross margin shows the product still carries pricing power at the unit level, but that has not reached the bottom line, and the 0.0 P/E reflects losses rather than a cheap multiple. The stock sits outside every index, with a 24/100 score and a $538M market cap, which is the profile of a name that needs a clear turnaround catalyst before it merits a deeper look. Our read is that the case for a closer look depends on evidence of stabilising sales and a path back to positive operating margin, neither of which the current data shows.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 5 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • severe
    Negative free cash flow
    Free cash flow of $-64.0M against a $512M market cap, with debt-to-equity at 2.17, leaves little room to service debt without new financing.
  • high
    Revenue shrinking sharply
    Revenue fell 12.8% year over year and 6.5% sequentially, while the 5-year revenue CAGR of 6.3% is now clearly reversed.
  • high
    Heavy short interest
    Short interest sits at 20.9% of ownership, a large bet against the stock that signals serious skepticism about the business.
  • moderate
    Operating losses persist
    Operating margin is -2.0% and net margin -6.2%, with ROE at -13.7%, so the business is not yet earning a return on equity.
  • moderate
    Price above ACCE target
    The stock trades 4.8% above the ACCE price target of $2.69, with the current price at $2.82.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 21, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Analysts' mean price target sits at $4.08, implying upside of +37.5% from the current share price of $2.82.
  • Over five years revenue has grown 6.3% a year on average, showing the business has expanded before its recent slump.
  • The share count barely moved, down just 0.3% last fiscal year, so existing holders are not being heavily diluted.
Why it could disappoint
  • Revenue fell 12.8% year over year, a sharp reversal from its longer-term growth trend.
  • The company burned $64M of free cash over the last twelve months, and its free cash flow yield is -12.2%.
  • Debt is 2.17 times equity, and the latest quarter's earnings per share missed expectations by 25.0%.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where DNUT's valuation models land
Price
$2.82
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $4.08
Model
Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bearish29% buy · 7 covering analysts
● Strong buy 2● Buy 0● Hold 3● Sell 1● Strong sell 1
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
-6.6%
1 month
-6.6%
3 months
-10.5%
6 months
-28.2%
YTD
-29.9%
1 year
-31.4%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$2.69first publication$3.07
9 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$2.48$1.10$2.92
29 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$1.10$1.15$2.89
26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$1.15$1.16$2.98
21 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$1.16$1.18$3.02
18 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$1.18$1.21$3.11
15 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$1.21$1.23$3.21
13 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$1.23$1.25$3.21
10 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$1.25$1.28$3.31
7 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$1.28$1.27$3.38

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth7Value32Quality21Momentum17Total19
Valuation
Trailing P/E
no data
Forward P/E
59.7x
PEG
no data
P/B
0.85x
EV / Revenue
1.2x
Book value/sh
$3.58
Enterprise value
$1.8B
Profitability
ROE
-13.7%
FCF yield
-13.08%
ROIC
-20.3%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
2.17
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
1.25

Price

-29.1% · 1Y

Ask anything about DNUT

Answered from Krispy Kreme Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
ROEbetter than 17% of peers
low -38%-14%high 22%
Div yieldbetter than 50% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 2.2%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
DNUT Krispy Kreme Inc. Common Stock$2.82----13.7%2119
HFG.DE HelloFresh€3.09€863% below--5.3%3835
DDL Dingdong (Cayman) Limited American Depositary Shares (each two representing three Ordinary Shares)$1.96---1.0%3247
VLGEA Village Super Market Inc. Class A Common Stock$45.09$5721% below12.2x10.3%4759
NGVC Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc. Common Stock$31.46$2811% above15.3x21.6%5253
GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. Common Stock$13.30----38.1%2548
IMKTA Ingles Markets Incorporated Class A Common Stock$87.88$11222% below16.2x6.3%3948

Sector report card

Where DNUT ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Oct 15, 2026
    Krispy Kreme to Attend Restaurant Finance & Development Conference in Las Vegas
  • Business Wire•Oct 13, 2026
    Krispy Kreme Announces Development Deal to Expand Across the New York Metro Area
  • Business Wire•Oct 12, 2026
    KRISPY KREME® Brings Fans a New Halloween Experiment with Limited-Time Looney Tunes™ Lab Dozen
11 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
August 2026
Aug 6
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-08-06
View on SEC →
Aug 6
10-QQuarterly reportPeriod 2026-06-28
View on SEC →
July 2026
Jul 1
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-07-01
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR