4 models fit ConocoPhillips Common Stock and they partly agree: 2 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionConocoPhillips Common Stock (COP)
Fair value (4 models)
$114
ACCE price target
$139
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST; previously $163 since 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $152 since 21 May 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 19:04 CEST.
Price used: $151 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
32.8% above
-24.7% to fair value
ACCE score
86
out of 100
Analysts
68% buy
28 covering
P/E
20.0x
forward 13.2x
1-year return
+67.4%
Dividend yield
2.27%
ConocoPhillips Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
ConocoPhillips is one of the largest independent exploration and production companies in the US, producing crude oil, natural gas and NGLs from the Lower 48, Alaska, Canada, Norway and Libya, with a sizeable LNG position through its Australian and Qatari-linked projects. Its advantage is scale and cost: a diversified, low-decline resource base and a portfolio of short-cycle and long-life assets that let it keep generating cash across a wide range of oil prices. Trailing revenue growth of 35.5% reflects the higher commodity price backdrop, but the more useful number is the 31.5% operating margin against a forward P/E of 12.7 versus a trailing 18.7, which implies the market expects earnings to normalise upward from here. The stock carries a 87/100 score and no index membership, so the screen is catching valuation and profitability rather than any benchmark-driven flow. The main risks are commodity price exposure and a 14.2% ROE that is respectable but not exceptional for a company at this cycle point, so this merits a closer look at the reserve replacement and capital return assumptions before anything else.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Insider selling concentration
Last 10 disclosed transactions show $33.18M in sales, zero buys. Suggests insiders may view current valuation as stretched relative to forward outlook.
moderate
Valuation premium to model
Forward P/E of 12.7 is reasonable, but near-term downside risk if energy cycle softens.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue surged 35.5% year over year with a 25.7% five-year average, showing sustained growth momentum.
Free cash flow of 7.2B dollars supports a 4.5% yield while the company maintains a conservative 0.36 debt-to-equity ratio.
Consensus fair value of 158.79 dollars implies 18.4% upside, with 68% of analysts rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
Why it could disappoint
Forward P/E of 12.7x trades below the 16.0x sector median, suggesting the market has priced in meaningful downside risks.
Share count grew 6.1% last fiscal year while ROIC of 7.4% trails the 5.2% risk-free rate, destroying shareholder value.
Current price implies only 4.2% annual cash flow growth over five years, leaving little room for execution missteps.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where COP's valuation models land
Price
$150.80
Model fair value
$114
Model range
$87.73 to $138
Fair value $114
Price $151
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores