Braskem SA ADR (BAK) fair value

ACCE thesis

Braskem makes polypropylene, polyethylene and other base petrochemicals, plus green ethylene from Brazilian sugarcane ethanol, and sells them largely into packaging and consumer goods supply chains. The structural case rests on its position as one of the largest resin producers in the Americas, with feedstock access in Brazil and a cost curve that improves when naphtha and ethane spreads move in its favour. The near-term catalyst is the margin recovery that follows restructuring at the company and its parent Novonor, which is what drives the 21.6% revenue growth and the 17.3% operating margin on a business that still reports a deeply negative return on equity of -548.8%. At a forward P/E of 9.8 the market is pricing in a sharp earnings recovery rather than the trailing losses, so the question for the desk is whether leverage and the refinancing path leave equity holders enough of that upside. Worth a deeper look on the balance sheet and the spread outlook before any position is considered.