Avista Corporation Common Stock (AVA) fair value

ACCE thesis

Avista is a regulated electric and natural gas utility serving customers across eastern Washington, northern Idaho, and parts of Oregon, earning returns on rate base approved by state commissions. Its structural appeal is the predictability of that model: regulated cash flows, a mostly flat-to-slow growth profile (revenue growth of 0.5%), and an 8.3% ROE that reflects its allowed returns rather than competitive pricing power. The main lever for earnings growth is capital spending on grid hardening, generation, and gas infrastructure that expands the rate base, but recovery depends on commission decisions and the timing of rate cases, so the catalyst set is regulatory rather than commercial. At 13.1 times trailing earnings and 13.0 times forward, the stock is priced in line with that modest growth outlook, and a score of 52/100 with no index membership suggests the screen sees a name worth checking against the rate case calendar and the capex plan rather than a clear mispricing.