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Valued as a utility: P/E comparison and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionAlgonquin Power & Utilities Corp. Common Shares (AQN)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$5.50
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $5.41 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: EV/EBITDA comparison and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
43
out of 100
Analysts
42% buy
12 covering
P/E
22.5x
forward 13.2x
1-year return
-6.7%
Dividend yield
4.77%
Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. Common Shares in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Algonquin Power & Utilities runs regulated electric and gas utilities in the US and Canada, alongside a renewable generation fleet of wind, solar and hydro assets that sells power under long-term contracts. Its structural appeal is the regulated rate base, which gives earnings a predictable path, though the company's 2.5% ROE and 3.1% revenue growth show how little of that is currently converting into shareholder returns. The near-term story rests on the company simplifying its portfolio and recycling capital into the regulated business, which management has been trying to do after a period of asset sales and balance sheet repair. The forward P/E of 12.9 sits well below the trailing 21.7, a gap the market is pricing as an earnings recovery that has yet to show up in reported results. The score of 41 and the absence of index membership mean the question for a PM is whether the earnings rebound is credible enough to justify the work, and that is the question worth a deeper look.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse year over year
Earnings are down 95.4% year over year, and quarter-on-quarter revenue fell 31.4%. Net margin is still positive at 5.9%, but the earnings base has thinned sharply.
high
Negative free cash flow
Free cash flow is -$181.4M while debt-to-equity sits at 1.41. The company is funding its spending with borrowing, which raises refinancing risk.
moderate
Weak return on equity
ROE is 2.5%, which is thin for a company carrying 1.41x debt to equity. Returns barely cover the cost of its capital base.
moderate
ACCE score declining
The ACCE score fell from 47 to 41 over 90 days, with the momentum component at 25/100 and growth at 28/100.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 21, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-21 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts' mean price target of $6.58 sits 23.8% above the current $5.41 share price.
Forward earnings multiple of 13.0x is well below the sector median of 19.9x.
Dividend yield of 5.0% pays shareholders while the company works through its investment programme.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -$181M, so the business is spending more than it generates.
Return on equity of 2.5% and return on invested capital of 1.3% are thin returns on the money tied up in the business.
Debt to equity of 1.41 and a 5.6% rise in diluted share count leave existing holders with more debt and a smaller slice of the company.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 6, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where AQN's valuation models land
Price
$5.41
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$7.10
Model
Fair value
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Quality
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