Only one of our models could value this stock with confidence, so use it as a guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison and Discounted cash flow.
ACCE opinionAir France-KLM SA (AF.PA)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
€13.70
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST.
Price used: €9.95 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
57
out of 100
P/E
2.6x
forward 2.3x
1-year return
-11.6%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Air France-KLM SA in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
Air France-KLM operates the Air France and KLM mainline carriers, the Transavia leisure brands and the Flying Blue loyalty programme, with a large share of its profit coming from long-haul routes through Paris-Charles de Gaulle and Amsterdam Schiphol. Its structural edge is the slot-constrained hub model, where the two European airports' limited capacity and the joint-venture alliance with Delta and KLM's transatlantic network are hard to replicate. Trailing revenue grew 9.9%, and the 2.6x trailing P/E sits well below typical airline multiples, which suggests the market is pricing in the cyclicality and leverage that have long weighed on the group. The 5.4% operating margin is thin against a 21.1% gross margin, so the thesis depends on sustained fare strength and cost discipline rather than on margin expansion already in hand. The 63.1% ROE is inflated by a small equity base after prior restructuring and should not be read as evidence of capital efficiency without checking the balance sheet.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapsing despite revenue growth
Revenue grew 9.9% year over year, but earnings fell 73.2%. Net margin is only 3.4% and operating margin 5.4%, so most of the top-line growth is not reaching shareholders.
moderate
Heavy insider ownership limits float
Insiders hold 54.4% of shares and institutions 17.9%, leaving a thin free float. Liquidity can be poor and price moves may be sharper than the fundamentals alone would suggest.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 9.9% year over year in the latest interim report, showing the top line is still expanding.
Earnings beat expectations, with EPS of 0.55 against 0.45 expected, a 22.2% surprise.
Analysts' mean price target of EUR 12.32 sits 17.6% above the current share price.
Why it could disappoint
Net margin of 3.4% leaves very little profit from each euro of revenue, so the business has thin cushions.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was only EUR 115M, a 4.1% yield at the current price.
The diluted share count rose 6.8% in the last fiscal year, diluting existing shareholders' stakes.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where AF.PA's valuation models land
Price
€9.95
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
€7.56
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
P/E comparison
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
+Score history: how each score moved over time
Analysts
Wall Street consensus
No analyst coverage yet.
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE
The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.
+Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
+Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
+ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street
Smart Money
PRO
In one line
Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.