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AAL
ACCE-researched

American Airlines Group Inc. Common Stock (AAL) fair value

Industrials · Airlines · NASDAQ · United States
$12.11-3.89%
Market cap $8.0BNext earnings 2026-10-22Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 52% below our fair value
Price
$12.11
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $25.48
Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Treated as a cyclical company. None of the usual models had enough data, so this uses Analyst consensus, Dividend discount, and Price to FFO instead.
ACCE opinionAmerican Airlines Group Inc. Common Stock (AAL)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$13.40
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $14.86 since 6 May 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $12.11 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Analyst consensus, Dividend discount, and Price to FFO.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
42
out of 100
Analysts
48% buy
25 covering
1-year return
-5.2%
Dividend yield
0.00%

American Airlines Group Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

American Airlines operates one of the largest US carrier networks, flying domestically and internationally from hubs in Dallas-Fort Worth, Charlotte, Chicago, Miami, Philadelphia and Phoenix, with the AAdvantage loyalty program and the Oneworld alliance supporting its premium revenue. The case rests on revenue momentum: sales grew 16.3% over the period in the data, while forward earnings at 5.3 times suggest the market is pricing in heavy skepticism about durability. Trailing P/E is not meaningful because earnings are depressed, and a 2.8% operating margin against a 21.2% gross margin shows how much of the top line is consumed by fuel, labor and aircraft costs before profit appears. The score of 45 out of 100 and the absence of index membership mean the stock is not on most screens, so the question for a PM is whether margin recovery from this thin base is credible enough to justify a deeper look at unit economics, fleet costs and debt. The bear case is that airline earnings are cyclical and capital-intensive, so a low multiple can persist for good reason.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Earnings collapse
    YoY earnings down 88.2% despite 16.3% revenue growth. Net margin negative at -0.6%. Operating leverage broken.
  • high
    Insider selling pressure
    Last 10 disclosures show $5.67M in insider sales, zero buys. Signals low confidence at current levels.
  • moderate
    Negative net margin
    Company unprofitable on net basis (-0.6% margin) despite positive gross and operating margins. Cost structure unsustainable.
  • moderate
    High leverage
    Debt/Equity ratio of -8.03 indicates inverted capital structure. Typical for distressed airlines with heavy debt loads.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue surged 16.3% year over year, driven by strong travel demand and pricing power.
  • Stock trades at just 9.1x forward earnings with 6.1% free cash flow yield, suggesting deep undervaluation.
Why it could disappoint
  • Company posted negative 0.6% net margin and 0.0% return on equity despite 16.3% revenue growth.
  • Five year revenue growth averaged only 3.7% annually, suggesting current 16.3% surge may not persist.
  • Negative 8.03 debt to equity ratio signals financial distress and limited balance sheet flexibility.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

PRO

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where AAL's valuation models land
Price
$12.11
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $25.48
Model
Fair value
Upside
Analyst consensus
Dividend discount
Price to FFO
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Mixed48% buy · 25 covering analysts
● Strong buy 10● Buy 2● Hold 12● Sell 0● Strong sell 1
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+1.9%
1 month
-9.3%
3 months
-16.4%
6 months
+0.1%
YTD
-21.0%
1 year
-5.2%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$13.40$14.86$11.88
4 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$6.93$7.21$12.94
30 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$7.21$7.36$13.52
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$7.36$7.21$13.87
25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$7.21$7.31$13.35
23 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$7.31$7.02$13.57
21 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$7.02$6.90$12.96
18 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$6.90$7.07$12.70
11 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$7.07$7.18$12.94
4 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$7.18$7.33$13.11

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth52Value47Quality20Momentum47Total42
Valuation
Trailing P/E
no data
Forward P/E
9.4x
PEG
no data
P/B
78.85x
EV / Revenue
0.6x
Book value/sh
$-6.00
Enterprise value
$36.8B
Profitability
ROE
0.0%
FCF yield
-8.40%
ROIC
no data
Health and risk
Debt / equity
-9.65
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
1.38

Price

-12.1% · 1Y

Ask anything about AAL

Answered from American Airlines Group Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
ROEbetter than 0% of peers
low 0%0%high 113%
Div yieldbetter than 0% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 5.0%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
AAL American Airlines Group Inc. Common Stock$12.11---0.0%2042
9201.T Japan Airlines Co., Ltd.¥2985.00--11.7x9.1%5166
9202.T ANA Holdings Inc.¥2910.00--9.3x13.2%5159
QAN.AX Qantas Airways LimitedA$8.45A$498% above10.0x112.7%5347
LHA.DE Deutsche Lufthansa AG€7.12€918% below12.5x6.2%3446
EZJ.L easyJet plc£6.79--12.6x13.1%4772
CPA Copa Holdings S.A. Class A Common Stock$134.86$1285% above9.0x23.1%6770

Sector report card

Where AAL ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • GlobeNewswire•Oct 1, 2026
    American Airlines Group announces webcast of third-quarter 2026 financial results
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 23, 2026
    STARLUX Airlines and American Airlines Launch Codeshare Partnership, Expanding U.S.-Asia Connectivity
  • PR Newswire•Sep 22, 2026
    Sustainable Aviation Buyers Alliance Members Back Next-Generation Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production with Long-Term Purchase Commitments
3 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
September 2026
Sep 21
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-20
View on SEC →
Sep 21
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-20
View on SEC →
August 2026
Aug 3
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-07-30
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR