2 models fit Deutsche Lufthansa AG and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Discount(i)Bronze58
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionDeutsche Lufthansa AG (LHA.DE)
Fair value (2 models)
€8.73
ACCE price target
€7.40
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: €6.97 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
20.2% below
+25.2% to fair value
ACCE score
46
out of 100
P/E
12.5x
forward 5.8x
1-year return
+0.0%
Dividend yield
4.54%
Deutsche Lufthansa AG in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Deutsche Lufthansa runs a hub-and-spoke network of passenger airlines (Lufthansa, SWISS, Austrian, Brussels, Eurowings) plus Lufthansa Cargo and the Lufthansa Technik maintenance arm, with Frankfurt and Munich as its core hubs. The structural case rests on slot-constrained hubs and a joint business with the Star Alliance and transatlantic partners, which limits new entrants on the premium long-haul routes where the margins sit. Revenue growth of 7.9% is the number to test, since the group has been rebuilding capacity and yield after the pandemic and the Eurowings and ITA-related restructuring. At a forward P/E of 5.9 against a trailing 12.7, the market is pricing a sharp earnings recovery, yet the operating margin is still -1.5% and ROE only 6.2%, so the thesis depends on whether unit revenue holds as capacity returns and fuel and labour costs stay contained. This looks worth a deeper look on the margin trajectory and cargo and MRO contribution, not on the multiple alone.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Negative free cash flow
Free cash flow is $-737,000,000, meaning the airline burned cash over the period despite reporting positive net margin of +1.6%.
high
Earnings collapse year on year
Earnings fell 88.1% year on year while revenue grew 7.9%, and operating margin is negative at -1.5%, so the profit decline is not a one-off accounting item.
moderate
Leverage above one times equity
Debt/Equity of 1.25 leaves little room to absorb another downturn, particularly with cash flow currently negative.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 7.9% year over year in the latest interim report, and the five-year average growth rate is 23.9% a year.
The shares trade on a forward P/E of 6.4x, and the dividend yield is 4.5%, so investors are paid to wait.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -EUR 737M, so the business is consuming cash rather than generating it.
Return on invested capital is 4.2%, which is thin for a business carrying debt equal to 1.25 times its equity.
The latest quarterly earnings per share came in at 0.10 against 0.28 expected, a miss of -64.3%.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where LHA.DE's valuation models land
Price
€6.97
Model fair value
€8.73
Model range
€2.99 to €15.62
Fair value €8.73
Price €6.97
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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