3 models fit Copa Holdings S.A. Class A Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Silver70
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionCopa Holdings S.A. Class A Common Stock (CPA)
Fair value (3 models)
$128
ACCE price target
$138
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST; previously $130 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: $131 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
2.4% above
-2.4% to fair value
ACCE score
70
out of 100
Analysts
87% buy
15 covering
P/E
9.0x
forward 6.8x
1-year return
+4.8%
Dividend yield
5.02%
Copa Holdings S.A. Class A Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
Overview
ACCE thesis
Copa Holdings runs the Panama-based airline Copa Airlines, which flies a Hub-of-the-Americas network out of Tocumen International in Panama City and carries passengers across Latin America, the Caribbean and into North America, backed by its Wingo low-cost brand. The structural edge is the hub itself: connecting traffic through Panama to places that single-carrier routes cannot reach gives Copa a cost and frequency advantage that is hard for competitors to copy quickly. Revenue growth of 25.7% and a 23.1% return on equity show the network is earning its keep, though the 8.6% operating margin says the spread is thin and sensitive to fuel and yields. Near-term catalysts are capacity additions on existing routes and continued recovery in regional demand, which matter more to the earnings path than any single fleet decision. At 8.7 times trailing and 6.8 times forward earnings, with a 5.4 billion dollar market cap, the stock is priced for a cyclical airline rather than a growth carrier, which is the reason to look harder at whether the margin can widen. The name is not in any index, so liquidity and ownership concentration are worth checking before sizing a position.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Earnings falling sharply
Earnings are down 53.8% year on year even though revenue grew 25.7%, so the margin squeeze is the thing to watch. Operating margin is 8.6% and net margin 15.7%.
moderate
Score down 15 points in 90 days
The ACCE score fell from 83 to 68 over 90 days, with growth at 52 the weakest component. The model fair value of $128.27 sits 2.4% below the current price, so the valuation cushion is thin.
moderate
Short interest rising
Short interest stands at 5.2% of float, which is meaningful but not extreme. Combined with the falling earnings, it suggests some investors are betting on further weakness.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-16 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 25.7% over the last year, and the five-year average annual growth rate is 35.2%.
The stock trades at 6.8 times forward earnings against a sector median of 23.8 times, and it pays a 5.1% dividend yield.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was $308M, and the diluted share count fell 1.3% last fiscal year.
Why it could disappoint
Latest earnings per share missed expectations by 11.2%, coming in at 1.67 against 1.88 expected.
Consensus model fair value of $128.27 sits 2.4% {gap_fair_value_direction} the $131.38 share price, leaving little margin of safety.
The price implies only 7.3% yearly cash flow growth over five years, while the 5.2% risk-free rate and 0.92 debt to equity keep the cost of capital high.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 18, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.
PRO
Ask ACCE
Valuation
INVESTOR
Where CPA's valuation models land
Price
$131.38
Model fair value
$128
Model range
$70.94 to $158
Fair value $128
Price $131
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
Create a free account: 5 full stock pages a month, no card.
See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores