Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO.NS) : juste valeur

Thèse ACCE

Hindalco makes primary aluminium and copper, and through Novelis it is also the largest producer of rolled aluminium products for beverage cans and automotive body sheet, with Novelis running recycling and rolling plants across North America, Europe and Asia. Its edge is integration: captive alumina and power sit behind the smelters, so it earns a cost position that pure-play rollers and smaller smelters cannot match, and Novelis gives it a downstream book with long-term customer contracts. Revenue grew 32.1% over the latest period, and with a 31.3% gross margin and a 13.7% operating margin, the business is converting that growth into profit at a reasonable rate. The stock trades at 12.0x trailing and 8.0x forward earnings, a sizeable discount that implies the market expects earnings to fall or to be cyclically peaked, which is the question to test before any deeper work: whether aluminium prices and the Novelis margin cycle can hold up. A look at the forward estimates and the metal price curve would settle that.