3 models fit Zevra Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Silver62
Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionZevra Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock (ZVRA)
Fair value (3 models)
$21.46
ACCE price target
$11.65
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST; previously $18.99 since 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST.
Price used: $9.81 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
54.3% below
+118.7% to fair value
ACCE score
72
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
9 covering
P/E
11.2x
forward 10.7x
1-year return
-8.1%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Zevra Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Zevra Therapeutics sells commercial rare-disease drugs, most notably Miplyffa (arimoclomol) for Niemann-Pick type C, alongside its Olpruva and Ojjaara-adjacent portfolio and a pipeline of orphan-indication programs. The structural appeal is the economics of orphan drugs: a 95.5% gross margin and a 42.3% operating margin on revenue growing 53.3%, with pricing power that comes from small, hard-to-serve patient populations and orphan exclusivity. Near-term, the story rests on Miplyffa's launch ramp and the conversion of a one-product growth profile into a multi-product one as additional indications and label expansions read out. At an 11.3x trailing and 10.7x forward earnings multiple, the market is pricing in little of that growth, and a 34.8% return on equity suggests the earnings are real rather than an accounting artefact of a single good quarter. The obvious question for a deeper look is durability: how much of the operating margin is sustainable once launch spending normalises and whether the pipeline can replace Miplyffa's revenue if competition or reimbursement pressure arrives.
⚠ Investor warnings · 5 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Free cash flow negative
FCF is $-2,433,000 despite +42.8% net margin, so reported profits are not turning into cash. Growth quality is hard to verify from the cash side.
high
Earnings collapsing vs revenue
Revenue grew +53.3% YoY while earnings fell -88.4%, a sharp divergence that suggests one-off items or rising costs behind the headline margins.
high
Heavy short interest
Short interest stands at +12.2% of float, a meaningful bet against the stock that should be weighed in position sizing.
moderate
Insider selling outweighs buying
Last 10 disclosed insider trades total $1.27M in sales against $0.07M in buys, a lopsided pattern worth monitoring.
moderate
Score down sharply in 90 days
ACCE score fell 10 points from 78 to 68 over 90 days, driven by the Momentum sub-score of 40, the weakest of the four pillars.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 53.3% year over year, and has averaged 51.6% a year over five years, showing sustained demand.
A 42.8% net margin and 34.8% return on equity show the business turns sales into profit very efficiently.
Analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy across 9 of 9 ratings, and their mean price target sits well above today's price.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -$2M, so the profits are not yet turning into spendable cash.
The diluted share count rose 23.8% last fiscal year, meaning each existing share now owns a smaller part of the company.
The stock trades 54.3% below the model fair value of $21.46, yet the price implies yearly cash flow growth of +9.3% forever, which is a demanding bar to clear.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where ZVRA's valuation models land
Price
$9.81
Model fair value
$21.46
Model range
$18.05 to $28.15
Fair value $21.46
Price $9.81
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores